It must be the middle of September because the Tennessee Volunteers are gearing up to play the Florida Gators in an SEC rivalry game this weekend. Kickoff is set for noon EST on Saturday, September 21 at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Florida. The game is being broadcast on ESPN.
According to the Week 4 college football odds, the no. 9 Gators are 14-point favorites at home. The over/under for the game is set at 50 points.
The Gators are breathing a sigh of relief after escaping with a win last week at Kentucky. Florida trailed 21-10 heading into the fourth quarter but scored the final 19 points of the game to win 29-21, although they failed to cover. It was a similar story in their season opener when the Gators got past Miami 24-20, winning but failing to cover the spread.
Despite being 3-0 on the season and ranked in the top-10, the Gators have some problems. Most notably, they will be without starting quarterback Feleipe Franks for the rest of the year after he suffered a serious ankle injury against Kentucky. The good news is that backup Kyle Trask is the one that led the comeback in the fourth quarter. But now it’ll be on Trask’s shoulders to lead Florida to the SEC Championship Game.
As for Tennessee, the early part of the season has been a living nightmare. First, there was that brutal, almost inexplicable loss to Georgia State in their season opener. The Volunteers then blew a late lead against BYU, eventually losing in overtime to fall to 0-2 on the season. Tennessee finally got their first win last week, knocking off FCS opponent Chattanooga 45-0, but that win is little solace after losing their first two games.
The Vols now begin the always-challenging SEC part of their schedule. Florida is the first of three top-10 teams left on Tennessee’s schedule. Jeremy Pruitt and the Vols need to find a way to win five of their remaining nine games, a task that has little margin for error assuming Tennessee loses to all three top-10 teams on the schedule.
Historically, the Volunteers haven’t fared well against the Gators. Tennessee has just one win over Florida in their last 14 meetings. The Volunteers haven’t won a game in Gainesville since 2003, although their last two trips to The Swamp have been close games decided by a total of seven points. On the other hand, the Gators dominated last year’s game, winning in Knoxville 47-21.
For the record, I don’t trust Tennessee after the way they’ve played early in the year. However, I think they’ll be more relaxed on the road without a tense and disappointed home crowd watching them. More importantly, the Gators failed to cover against both Miami and Kentucky, and that makes me nervous about them covering two touchdowns this week. I don’t like it, but I’ll lean toward Tennessee to beat the spread in a close loss.
Even before Franks went out with an injury, something was off about the Florida offense. To his credit, Trask came in during crunch time and led the Gators to a win. But things are a little different now that he’s the starter. There’s more pressure on him and he’ll face a defense that has spent the week preparing to face him. That changes things for a quarterback who hadn’t taken many steps before being pressed into duty last week.
On top of that, the Gators haven’t been particularly effective running the ball this year. Lamical Perine is the workhorse back, but he’s averaging just 3.5 yards per carry. Even when you add in a few long runs by other players, Florida is only averaging 4.5 yards per carry as a team. That doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence for a team that’s now being forced to use an inexperienced quarterback. Despite getting shredded by Georgia State on the ground, the Tennessee defense bounced back and played better against BYU, so I think the Vols can contain the run and put more pressure on Trask.
To be fair, I also remain unconvinced by the Tennessee offense. Quarterback Jarrett Guarantano hasn’t taken that step forward like the Volunteers were hoping he would. Even if we could give him a pass for the Georgia State disaster, he was still making mistakes against BYU. On the bright side, the Tennessee rushing attack did start to come alive after the loss to Georgia State, which should help the Vols avoid putting too much on Guarantano’s shoulders.
The key for Tennessee will be avoiding turnovers. The Florida defense had three interceptions last week against Kentucky’s backup quarterback. They also racked up 10 sacks in their season opener against Miami, taking advantage of a weak offensive line. Guarantano facing constant pressure isn’t likely to end well for Tennessee. However, the Vols only conceded one sack against BYU, again indicating some progress after the disastrous loss to Georgia State.
Ultimately, I’m betting on some growing pains for the new Florida quarterback and some modest improvement from the Volunteers. Despite some concerns about Guarantano, I think the Volunteers have enough offensively to keep this game within two touchdowns, especially since the Gators haven’t cracked 30 points against an FBS team this year. I’ll take my chances with Florida winning but failing to cover for the third time this season.