The annual Southern Methodist vs Texas Christian rivalry game is known as the “Iron Skillet” battle, based on an antique cooking vessel and a 70-year-old legend about rival tailgaters.
If the SMU Mustangs win the contest, the skillet gets handed over to the Dallas campus and used to cook frog legs, playing off TCU’s nickname “the Horned Frogs.” If Texas Christian wins, the skillet is used to cook…to cook…I don’t want to think about it.
The only macabre detail college football odds-makers are concerning themselves with is SMU’s defense, which has been a problem spot for the program for a while. Last weekend, North Texas scored 36 points on the Mustangs in the first 3 quarters alone.
Meanwhile, TCU coaches are probably letting their defensive unit have it for giving up a TD to Southern in the 2nd quarter last week. But there’s no denying that the Frogs’ 55-7 win was a much more impressive outing than what the Mustangs mustered in Week 1.
Can SMU turn the tide against an even-tougher opponent than it faced a few days ago?
Who: Texas Christian Horned Frogs at Southern Methodist Mustangs
When: Friday, September 7th, 8 PM
Where: Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX
Lines: TCU (-23) at SMU (+23) / O/U Total: (61.5)
The odds reflect how respected Gary Patterson’s TCU program has become after winning double-digit games in 3 out of the past 4 seasons. The Horned Frogs are a 3+ touchdown favorite, a (-2000) moneyline bet, and are responsible for a good chunk of the (61.5) O/U total. Patterson’s offense scored 55 points in the opener against Southern, scored 56 points against SMU in last year’s Iron Skillet, and scored 39 in a bowl victory over Stanford in December.
But don’t overlook the Mustangs’ “contribution” to the Vegas point total. The proud old program had a miserable finish in 2017, losing to Memphis, Navy, UCF and Louisiana Tech in a 5-game span. But it did score around 200 points in the first 5 games and go on to finish 7-6. The team hails from a conference, the AAC, which is similar to TCU’s in many respects.
Texas Christian’s conference is the Big 12, which is full of offense and scattered in quality of defense. Programs like Oklahoma State brag on their NFL draft picks at linebacker and in the defensive backfield, but they’re really more concerned with out-scoring their opponents.
The American Athletic Conference has scalped so many Power-5 teams in its as-yet short life span that its members like to refer to themselves as the “Power-6.” But strangely, what holds the league back from greater recognition is that the league too-often resembles a poor man’s Big 12.
Memphis scored 70 points on UConn in 2017 but gave up 31 to Southern Illinois, and gave up 40 to Central Florida. Houston’s defense appeared to turn a corner after a 19-16 defeat of Pac-12 representative Arizona but later allowed a dozen touchdowns to Tulsa and Memphis combined during a mid-season dry spell.
UCF rode an aggressive attack to a perfect 13-0 record last year. But Scott Frost’s defense was almost helpless by the end of a dramatic season-capping clash with rival USF. Navy is yet another exciting AAC team that can’t get above average on defense for systemic reasons.
Where does SMU fall in the scheme of things? The 46-23 loss to North Texas should not be considered the death knell for the Mustangs’ season – the Mean Green are likely to be the class of C-USA this season. But UNT quarterback Mason Fine’s 444-yard performance doesn’t auger well for the Sonny Dykes era in Dallas. Despite stopping the run effectively, the squad allowed Fine an unreal 80% completion rate on 50 attempts.
Dykes must also deal with the loss of star receivers Trey Quinn and Courtland Sutton. Ben Hicks passed for 250 yards in the opener but only connected on 50% of his throws.
We have observed in Week Zero and Week 1 that Top 25 coaches are extremely comfortable with running up scores. Alabama, for instance, eschewed its usual play-safe-with-a-lead tactics and went bombs-away on Louisville in the 3rd and 4th quarters even after the contest became academic.
The weaknesses of SMU – namely the pass rush and depth at the offensive skill positions – play into the strengths of TCU in such a way that we could be looking at a real blow-out.
Sophomore Shawn Robinson is new at QB for the Frogs, but that means coaches will be more likely to keep passing even if the game is lopsided, to help develop the young player for battles to come with OU and Texas.
But even as SMU has trended-down in the Iron Skillet rivalry (winning just 1 of the last 10 meetings), the program has trended-up on offense along with its entire conference. AAC teams don’t usually have solid P5-level defenses. But almost to a campus, they’ve got offense in spades.
North Texas isn’t the best defensive team in C-USA, but I’m thinking the Mustangs had a bad start and will rebound to score on a couple of early drives this Friday…even as TCU scores faster.
If the Mustangs take an early lead, TCU’s burly blockers will likely crank things up and put the team on the board 4 or 5 times in the 2nd and 3rd quarters. If TCU takes an early lead, expect a high-scoring blow-out with Patterson’s team trying to add points (and bolster its AP ranking) for a full 60 minutes.
A (61.5) O/U total is fairly substantial, but it’s not high enough for this one.
Take the over for a winner in Dallas.