The No. 7 Stanford Cardinal visit the No. 10 Washington Huskies in a pivotal Pac-12 battle on Friday, September 30th. The Cardinal have won three straight and seven of the last eight meetings, including a 31-14 home victory last season.
Washington (4-0, 1-0 Pac-12) survived a 35-28 (OT) victory at Arizona in its Pac-12 opener last week. Dante Pettis caught the game-winning 4-yard touchdown pass from Jake Browning in the first overtime, and the defense held from there.
Stanford (3-0, 2-0 Pac-12) also earned a hard-fought 22-13 road win at UCLA last week. The Cardinal saved their best drive for when they needed it most, scoring on an 8-yard touchdown pass from Ryan Burns to JJ Arcega-Whiteside with only 24 seconds remaining to go ahead for good.
Kickoff inside Husky Stadium is set for 9:00 EST Friday night with ESPN providing the television coverage. Taking a look at the lines in Las Vegas, I find Washington as a 2.5-point favorite over Stanford with a total set of 44 points.
The Huskies were a popular pick to compete for a Pac-12 Championship coming into the season. In fact, I actually picked the Huskies to win the conference. They had 15 starters back this season and one of the most talented young rosters in the country.
But after needing overtime to beat Arizona on the road last week, I think a lot of people have lowered their expectations on the Huskies. I’m not one of them. I believe that close win has the Huskies undervalued here heading into their biggest game of the season. Had they blown out Arizona like they were supposed to, they would be much more than 2.5-point favorites here.
I also think that close win over Arizona will benefit the Huskies mentally. They needed a close game to test their intestinal fortitude, and they responded by scoring in the first overtime and holding on defense. That close win will benefit them the rest of the season because they are battle-tested now.
Stanford is also battle-tested having faced three pretty tough opponents and beating them all in Kansas State, USC and UCLA. Only one of those games was on the road, though, and they should have lost to UCLA last week.
The Cardinal trailed almost the entire game before getting a touchdown with 24 seconds left to go up 16-13. Their offense was held to three field goals before that drive. Then they got a fumble recovery and returned it for a TD on the final play, winning 22-13 when the game was much closer than that. I actually think that extra score has the Cardinal overvalued here. Had they lost to UCLA like they should have, Stanford would be a bigger underdog this week.
It’s clear that Stanford has issues offensively that aren’t really fixable. It is only averaging 25.0 points and 342 yards per game this season. The only offense has been Christian McCaffrey as they are too predictable. First-year starter Ryan Burns hasn’t been able to produce much in the passing game, throwing for just 402 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions while averaging 6.9 yards per attempt.
Now Burns is going to be up against the best defense in the Pac-12 in one of the most hostile atmospheres in all of college football at Husky Stadium. Washington is holding opponents to 14.5 points, 320.7 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play. The Huskies had the best defense in the Pac-12 last year, and they returned seven starters on that unit.
Washington may also have the best offense in the Pac-12. It is putting up 45.7 points, 445.2 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play this season. Both Jake Browning and Myles Gaskin are now sophomores after starting as freshmen last season.
Browning is completing 70.5 percent of his passes for 904 yards with 14 touchdowns and two interceptions. Gaskin has rushed for 302 yards and two touchdowns. Four receivers have at least 10 receptions this season, including Joe Ross (17, 195, 5 TD), who missed all of last season due to injury. Ross is their best playmaker on offense and special teams, so it’s huge to have him back healthy.
Plays on home favorites (WASHINGTON) – after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 4 consecutive games, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 57-25 (69.5%) ATS since 1992.
Chris Petersen is 26-9 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games in all games he has coached.
Chris Petersen is 26-9 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games in all games he has coached. Petersen is 15-5 ATS after two ore more consecutive ATS losses in all games he has coached. The Huskies are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games following a ATS loss. The home team is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.