There’s a saying among engineers – when you assume, you make an a** out of U and ME.
Football odds-makers don’t often make baseless assumptions…especially when it comes to heavy-action brands like Stanford, Southern Cal or the Pac-12 in general. Results, trends, talent, size and speed are all carefully factored into the mix when the lines are set in Vegas.
To find any kind of advantage against the house, the sports bettor cannot simply look for any old mistake in the casino handicapper’s analysis. You must find something that the entire pigskin community is deluded about.
That’s the type of mistake that even the betting action itself (or the sportsbook boss) won’t be able to correct…until it’s too late.
Thankfully, there are plenty of such mistakes if you know where to find them. For instance, the letters “FBS” seem to be worth a handful of points in the spread by themselves. When an FBS program takes on an FCS team, there’s a community-wide tendency to underestimate the lower-division program, even if the talent is quite comparable between the 2 schools. Liberty (an FCS program until this season began) was a substantial underdog against Old Dominion, an already-established (if recent) FBS opponent from Conference USA, in Week 1. Odds-makers figured that when in doubt, they should favor the “big time” program…not the FCS transplant.
Liberty beat Old Dominion by more than 40 points last weekend.
As Bryce Love and the Stanford Cardinal prepare to host the USC Trojans in a September meeting of Pac-12 strongholds, another popular myth is influencing not only the odds and the action for the Stanford-USC match-up but also the mainstream media’s analysis of the season in general.
What’s the myth? That very young 5-star quarterbacks are infallible, and that their seasons won’t hit any adversity along the way. How could anything bad happen this week, when they looked so good last week?
Who: University of Southern California Trojans at Stanford Cardinal
When: Saturday, September 8th, 8:30 PM EST
Where: Stanford Stadium, Stanford, CA
Lines: USC (+5) at Stanford (-5) / O/U Total: (55.5)
Week 1 was a time for great QB play. Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa shined alongside newly-demoted backup Jalen Hurts in the Tide’s blow-out of Louisiana. Oklahoma’s Kyler Murray only threw 2 incompletions to go with a pair of touchdown passes in a huge win over Florida Atlantic. Cole MacDonald of Hawaii has surprised with an aerial attack that reminds fans of the June Jones era.
And then there’s J.T. Daniels, a potential frosh wunderkind for the USC Trojans. Daniels was effective in Southern Cal’s opening win over UNLV, and is inspiring true belief among the Trojan fan base thanks to his history as a California-bred prep superstar and successful first steps in Clay Helton’s program.
The media is falling all over itself to praise the new crop of gun-slingers. The normally level-headed Kirk Herbstreit went on ESPN on Monday to pronounce Tagovailoa a god from Mount Olympus. Murray stands to become an Okie gridiron celebrity despite likely bolting for baseball after one season. As for Daniels? His debut was pretty good too. UNLV took a slim early lead, but the teenager didn’t get rattled, connecting with receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown for the winning points in a 43-21 triumph.
Stanford’s K.J. Costello, more-experienced as a junior, had a similar opening weekend. San Diego State scored first in the Cardinal’s opener, and a tough Aztec defense made stopping Love and the rest of the Stanford backfield a 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th priority. The Heisman-candidate RB only jogged for 29 yards on 18 carries, easily one of the worst statistical performances of his career. Costello took advantage of a defense that over-committed to the LOS, however, tossing 3 touchdown passes and leading the Top 15-ranked Cardinal to a 31-10 win.
It’s ridiculous to assume that any QB’s season will amount to peaches and cream for 12+ weekends. Adversity will come. When it does, the signal-callers who have more experience, better blocking, better ball-carriers and more-proven defenses to rely on will have an easier time traversing rough waters. Costello got by without a running game last Saturday. It’s not yet proven that Daniels could do the same at a tender age.
That’s probably why the junior QB from Stanford is favored by (-5) over his younger counterpart. But if the freshman wasn’t so insanely-hyped coming into the season, would the Cardinal be favored by more?
I’m liking Stanford ATS. USC may turn out to be an excellent team in 2018-19, but their opponents have proven much more in results so far. There is no reason to assume that the Trojans – who labored to get past a Mountain West also-ran – will be able to out-play a squad that just whipped one of the MWC’s best.
Bryce Love should be able to rebound with a solid outing in Week 2, which in his terms, means 100-to-200 yards on 15+ carries is not out of the question.
But I’m also liking the under (55.5) based on a pair of defenses that unfortunately get over-shadowed by the QBs and other offensive stars at their programs. Stanford racked-up 5 sacks against SDSU, with 2 coming from edge-rusher Jovan Swann. USC linebacker Cameron Smith is a gigantic beast.
This will be a grudge match with high stakes. Defensive coordinators won’t hold anything back. Expect the eye-popping QB numbers to trend down over the next few weeks as defenses adjust to the cannon-armed youngsters of the FBS. That includes the Pac-12…why assume it doesn’t?
Kirk Herbstreit is a fine analyst, but last time I checked, his breathless bragging on Power-5 passers won’t add any points or yards-gained to a box score in Week 2. Pundits need a cold shower…and to remember that a breezy Week 1 doesn’t tell us how the entire season will go for any offense.
Pick Stanford to cover (-5) or under (55.5) points in Saturday’s prime-time showdown.