The no. 13 Stanford Cardinal will look to avenge a loss from last season when they host the San Diego State Aztecs in their 2018 season opener. Kickoff is set for 9:00 EST on Friday, August 31 at Stanford Stadium in Stanford, California. The game will be televised on FS1. The Cardinal enter the game as 15.5-point favorites over the Aztecs. Get more spreads and find out the tv coverages by going to our 2018 week 1 CFB lines page.
DuringDavid Shaw’s tenure, Stanford has failed to finish a season ranked in the top-25 just once. That kind of success lends itself to high expectations every season, and this year will be no different for the Cardinal.
After going 9-5 a year ago, reaching the Pac-12 Championship Game, and losing four of their five games by three points or less, fans are expecting big things in Palo Alto in 2018. It also helps that Heisman candidate Bryce Love is back in the Stanford backfield and ready to lead the Cardinal to big things.
Of course, Rocky Long has also made San Diego State accustomed to winning games. The Aztecs have won at least 10 games in each of the past three seasons, including a 10-3 campaign last year. Long’s team will not be intimidated to open the season against a Pac-12 powerhouse like Stanford after beating two Pac-12 teams, including Stanford, in 2017.
As mentioned, the Aztecs beat Stanford last September in San Diego. The SDSU defense couldn’t contain Love, but the Aztecs were much more balanced offensively, helping them score a game-winning touchdown in the final minute to win 20-17.
Stanford has a chance to be a top-10 team at season’s end, but that doesn’t change the fact that this spread is way too high. The Cardinal will be the better team and will probably win the game. However, that doesn’t guarantee that they’ll win comfortably. The gap between these two teams, especially early in the season, is not going to be that large. With a cushion of more than two touchdowns, this game is an easy lean toward San Diego State.
Year after year, the Aztecs have one of the most potent rushing attacks in the country. Last year, Rashad Penny gained over 2,200 yards and 7.8 yards per carry while scoring 23 touchdowns. Those numbers made Penny a first-round NFL draft pick with big shoes to fill. But the SDSU offense is about the system, not the personnel. Backup Juwan Washington is more than ready to step in as the starter. After all, he managed to run for 759 yards and six yards per carry as Penny’s backup last season. The Aztecs should have no problem moving the ball on the ground against the Cardinal.
Moreover, Stanford actually has some questions in their front-7 heading into the season. The defensive line is lacking in depth and could struggle against a team like San Diego State that commits to running the ball. The Cardinal have some veteran linebackers who should help prevent the Aztecs from creating too many big plays. However, the Stanford defense may not win enough at the line of scrimmage to completely shut down the SDSU rushing attack.
As long as the Aztecs can run the ball consistently, they’ll be a marginal threat to make plays in the passing game and stay balanced. Quarterback Christian Chapman isn’t anything special, but he has two years of experience under his belt. Over the past two seasons, he has 33 touchdowns and just 10 interceptions. He was also 21 for 29 against Stanford a year ago. Chapman won’t push the ball downfield, but he avoids mistakes and does enough to keep drives alive, especially when opposing defenses start to focus too much on stopping the run.
Of course, Stanford also has a dynamic rushing attack. Love also rushed for better than 2,000 yards in 2017. Much like San Diego State, the Stanford offensive line is in good shape heading into the season. The Cardinal should also lean heavily on their rushing attack while also hoping quarterback K.J. Costello can make a few plays with his arm. Costello closed the 2017 season strong, even if he wasn’t at his best in the Pac-12 title game or Stanford’s bowl loss to TCU.
That being said, San Diego State was stout defensively last season, and they bring back standout players at all three levels this year. Remember, the Aztecs beat both Stanford and Arizona State last season. Both are high-scoring Pac-12 teams that SDSU held to 20 points or less. Even with Love having a big day, the Aztecs held Stanford to just 17 points.
If Stanford expected to cover the 15.5-point spread, they’ll have to be clicking on all cylinders offensively and find a way to slow down the SDSU rushing attack. Neither scenario is all that likely. With both teams being so proficient on the ground, the clock will constantly be moving, limiting the number of possessions each team gets. That makes it even more unlikely that Stanford will be able to pull away and win comfortably. Quite frankly, the Aztecs could very well pull off another upset. If nothing else, they’ll keep the final score within two touchdowns.