A pair of struggling Pac-12 teams will both be hoping to score their first conference win of the season this week when the Stanford Cardinal visit the Oregon State Beavers. Game time is at 7:00 EST on Saturday, September 28 at Reser Stadium in Corvallis, Oregon. Fans can watch the game on the Pac-12 Network.
Stanford is currently listed as a 3.5-point favorite on the road. The over/under for the game is set at 58.5 points. Click here to check out a full schedule and betting odds for all of this week’s college football games.
The first month of the season has been a long hard fall from grace for Stanford, who began the season in the top-25. After surviving a close game with Northwestern, the Cardinal has lost three games in a row to fall to 1-3. In their defense, those losses have come at the hands of Stanford, Central Florida, and Oregon, who are all currently ranked.
Of course, playing a difficult schedule doesn’t change the fact that Stanford is in serious danger of seeing their streak of 10 consecutive years going to a bowl game come to an end. The Cardinal has three games left against ranked teams. Barring an upset in one of those games, Stanford has to win every other game left on their schedule, making Saturday’s trip to Corvallis a must-win game for the Cardinal.
Oregon State, meanwhile, is trying to put an end to a five-year bowl drought. Things aren’t going particularly well for the Beavers. They began the season with back-to-back losses to Oklahoma State and Hawaii before getting their first win of the season two weeks ago against FCS opponent Cal Poly.
At 1-2, OSU will have to go 5-4 in Pac-12 play in order to reach a bowl game. That figures to be a difficult task for a program that is 1-17 in conference play over the past two seasons. The Beavers are also facing a schedule that includes four ranked teams. Hosting a struggling Stanford team could end up being one of the more winnable games on Oregon State’s schedule.
That being said, the Beavers haven’t knocked off Stanford since 2009. That’s nine straight wins for the Cardinal over OSU. On the bright side, Stanford barely escaped with a 15-14 win in their last trip to Corvallis in 2017, which could put some belief in the Beavers.
The fact that the spread for this game is only 3.5 points is a testament to how far Stanford has fallen. However, their loss is everyone else’s gain because surely Stanford hasn’t fallen so far that they’re now on Oregon State’s level. I’m not saying it’ll be pretty, but after three straight losses against quality teams, the Cardinal should be able to push around the Beavers and cover the 3.5-point spread.
I’ll give Oregon State some credit because they have a decent looking offense this year. Quarterback Jake Luton, a sixth-year senior, and running back Jermar Jefferson give the Beavers a viable Pac-12 offense, or so it seems. Putting up points against the likes of Oklahoma State and Hawaii isn’t exactly unique. Oregon State was also held scoreless in the second half of their 31-28 loss to Hawaii, so I’m going to pump the brakes on declaring the Beavers an offensive juggernaut.
More importantly, the Stanford defense is still in good shape. Admittedly, there were some lapses against USC and UCF, but those teams have elite athletes that far exceed what Oregon State will throw at the Cardinal on Saturday night. Stanford also limited the Oregon Ducks to just 21 points last week. The Cardinal held their ground in the trenches against one of the best offensive lines in the country. That makes me think the Cardinal defense can handle Oregon State.
On the other side of the ball, the Oregon State defense remains a work in progress. That side of the ball is going to take a little more time to show improvement than the offense. Against Oklahoma State, they were shredded on the ground while Hawaii picked apart the Beavers through the air. To me, that’s a sign that the OSU defense has flaws all over the field that opposing teams can exploit based on their strengths.
In fairness, Stanford doesn’t appear to have that many strengths on offense. The running game is not what we’ve seen in the past. The Cardinal is averaging less than four yards per carry. Senior quarterback K.J. Costello has also struggled to get going, especially after missing the USC game with a concussion. However, Stanford has faced three power-conference teams and Central Florida, so they’ve been challenged by defenses far better than the one at Oregon State.
Despite being 1-3, I have no doubt that Stanford is better than Oregon State, and by a wide margin. The Cardinal has struggled early in the season against tough competition. But the Beavers are much closer to their weight class. While the Beavers may put some points on the board, the OSU defense isn’t to be trusted. I like Stanford to cover 3.5 points without much of a problem.