It’s still early in the season, but there will be a lot at stake in the Pac-12 North this week when the no. 16 Oregon Ducks visit the Stanford Cardinal. Game time is at 7:00 EST on Saturday, September 21 at Stanford Stadium. The game will be broadcast on ESPN.
Based on our Week 4 college football odds, the Ducks are 10.5-point road favorites over Stanford. The over/under for the contest is set at 59.5 points.
David Shaw and Stanford could be looking down the barrel of their second straight disappointing campaign. The Cardinal was a little fortunate to escape with a win over Northwestern in their season opener. But it’s been all downhill from there. Stanford blew a lead in their Pac-12 opener against USC, ultimately losing 45-20. The Cardinal was then obliterated last week against UCF, trailing 38-7 at halftime before losing 45-27.
Stanford sits at 1-2 with their entire Pac-12 schedule and a home date against Notre Dame still ahead of them. Currently, five of Stanford’s final nine opponents are ranked. The Cardinal didn’t play well against a ranked team last week, and Stanford could end up struggling just to get to a bowl game if they don’t get things turned around quickly.
Meanwhile, Oregon seems to have bounced back just fine after a devastating loss to Auburn in their season opener. That loss knocked the Ducks down a few spots in the polls, but it didn’t ruin their season. Oregon responded with a 77-6 blowout of a Nevada team that upset Purdue the previous week. The Ducks then coasted to a 35-3 win over Montana last week to close out their non-conference season.
Oregon, of course, is hoping to win the Pac-12 North. But they also have a chance to sneak into the College Football Playoff discussion if they can win out. Obviously, that won’t be easy with four ranked teams left on their schedule. But the Ducks are likely to be favored in most or all of their remaining games, so anything is possible. They just have to take care of business, starting with this week’s road trip to Stanford.
The Ducks will also be eager to stop their three-game losing streak at the hands of the Cardinal. Last year’s loss to Stanford was particularly painful, as Oregon let a 24-7 halftime lead slip away, ultimately losing in overtime. Oregon also lost 49-7 when they last visited Stanford Stadium, so they have some demons to exorcise on Saturday night.
There’s nothing I want to do more than give Stanford the benefit of the doubt. They’ve been so reliable for such a long time, especially at home. But that’s not the team they’ve looked like the past two weeks. Meanwhile, I still think Oregon is the best team in the Pac-12 and potentially a top-10 team nationally. I think the Ducks will avoid some of the errors that cost them against the Cardinal last year and win this game going away.
Defensively, the Cardinal looked sound in their opener against Northwestern. But the Stanford secondary has been picked apart the past two weeks. Most concerning, it’s been a pair of freshmen quarterbacks for USC and UCF that have done the damage. That worries me ahead of their matchup with Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert, who is one of the most talented and experienced quarterbacks in the country. Herbert already has 11 touchdown passes this year, and if he had a decent game against the Auburn defense, I think he’ll be fine against Stanford. On a related note, he has one of the best offensive lines in the country protecting him.
The good news for Stanford is that quarterback K.J. Costello returned last week after missing the USC game. The bad news is that he didn’t have a great game, completing just 21 of his 44 passes, averaging 4.5 yards per pass. Perhaps more importantly, the Cardinal has struggled to run the ball for much of the season. Stanford also had to abandon the run after they fell behind quickly last week, which didn’t make things any easier for Costello.
To be fair, we still don’t have a great read on the Oregon defense. They were good against the pass in the Auburn game, but they were also facing a true freshman. The Ducks also got hurt on the ground in that game and allowed a lead to slip away in the fourth quarter. But they did manage to dominate and force four turnovers against a solid Nevada team the following week. Ultimately, I think the Oregon defense will be fine, especially if the offense can start fast and give them an early lead.
All things considered, I have to sell my Stanford stock and lean toward the Ducks to win by double digits. Even at home, I have too many concerns about the Cardinal to think they can keep up with Oregon for four quarters. Even if the Ducks don’t start fast, I think Herbert will get in a groove by the second half and lead Oregon to a comfortable win that covers the spread.