Despite my affection for handicapping big ol’ wide point spreads, I’ve got to admit this particular Power-5 vs Group-of-5 contest is a little harder to get a grip on.
Alabama likes to quickly blow away any team that it can, but Nick Saban hasn’t exactly stacked the September schedule with patsies in 2019. Western Carolina is visiting for ‘Bama’s homecoming on 11/23, but the early-season slate has been a mix of tough opponents and also-rans.
The Crimson Tide opened conference play against South Carolina last week, getting past the Gamecocks in impressive but not kingly style with a 47-23 victory.
Southern Miss is not simply a cupcake. The Golden Eagles spent my childhood losing to SEC and ACC schools by a few points at a time on national TV, and the program is still a tough cookie to bite in 2019.
Plus ca change. Southern Mississippi beat Alcorn State to begin the season, lost in trademark fashion to beefy Mississippi State with a bad 1st half and a brave 2nd half, then won a shoot-out over Troy to stand at 2-1.
But the college football speculators of Las Vegas have still seen fit to put an almost 6-touchdown spread on the Alabama vs Southern Miss contest this Saturday.
Who: Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Alabama Crimson Tide
When: Saturday, September 21st, 12 PM EST
Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL
Lines: SoMiss (+39) at Alabama (-39) / O/U Total: (59.5)
Exactly how good is Troy anyway? The Trojans are at least the token Sun Belt team everyone likes to tout as a threat to the Power-5, but my 2017 prediction that the program could become the “Boise State of the South” hasn’t exactly worked out. Not yet, anyway. Troy did beat a MAC runner-up Buffalo in a bowl game in 2018 but has not played any legitimate FBS opponents expect for Southern Miss in 2019 so far.
If we can’t gauge the strength of the opponent Southern Miss just beat, at least we can look at the pleasures and problems that the Golden Eagles had in the wild win last weekend.
QB Jack Abraham passed for 400+ yards against a traditionally-stout defense, and while the running game floundered, the Trojans were stacking 8 and 9 men in the box every so often, opening up the passing game for Southern Miss. Receiver Quez Watkins had a career day. The Golden Eagle defense didn’t fare as well, however:
On Saturday, Southern Miss scored 17 straight points to take the lead at 33-21 with 11:40 left in the game, but there was still plenty of scoring to come. Troy’s Reggie Todd returned the ensuing kickoff 69 yards for a touchdown to make it 33-28, only to see Southern Miss’ Jaylond Adams go 100 yards with the next kickoff to put the Golden Eagles back up 40-28 with 11:15 left. Barker found Khalil McClain for a 34-yard score to pull the Trojans within 40-35 at the 8:53 mark, but Abraham hit Quez Watkins for a 64-yard TD to put USM back up 47-35 with 7:10 remaining. Watkins caught seven passes for 209 yards and two touchdowns, adding a 19-yard from Abraham in the third quarter.
Troy scored the game’s final points on Barker’s 35-yard pass to McClain with 2:51 to play. The Golden Eagles then ran out the clock, with Abraham converting a 6-yard run on fourth-and-2 to effectively end the game. Barker completed 29 of 43 passes, with his yardage total eclipsing the previous school mark of 485 set by Corey Robinson vs. Louisiana in 2012. He also threw touchdown passes of 57 yards to Kaylon Geiger in the first quarter and 25 yards to Tray Eafford in the second.
If a secondary can get sliced and diced by Troy, the Crimson Tide and its QB Tua Tagovailoa might find easy pickings. Tua had 1 of his trademark perfect days against South Carolina, passing for almost 450 yards with 5 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, and only 8 incomplete throws. USC (the SEC’s “USC”) did a little bit better against Najee Harris and the Alabama ground game but it should also be pointed out that Tagovailoa didn’t try many designed runs or options. Saban is saving his full arsenal for the truly difficult battles to come.
The Over/Under total has climbed to (61.5) – this isn’t the NFL after all – and this time the betting public has it exactly right. It’s not just the fact that ‘Bama and Southern Miss have been scoring a lot of points, but that Alabama can be like a sleeping giant against overwhelmed opponents that the team knows it can beat. Visiting Group-of-5 teams can try to control the clock or try to score quickly, poke at Godzilla and suffer in the 2nd half.
Southern Miss has no choice but to poke the radioactive monster, because the Eagles’ passing game is better than the running game at this point. Abraham will put a few drives together with quick releases and short throws, and the result will be that Saban and Tagovailoa decide to go bombs-away and get way out ahead as fast as possible.
Will the result be a cover for ‘Bama? No, not necessarily. I’m actually liking Southern Miss ATS. But I’m especially keen on the Over in a match-up in which Tua’s counterpart can produce some fireworks of his own.