The no. 17 Kentucky Wildcats will try to stay perfect as they host the South Carolina Gamecocks this weekend. Game time is set for 7:30 EST on Saturday, September 29, at Kroger Field in Lexington, Kentucky. The game is available on the SEC Network.
Based on this week’s college football odds, the Wildcats are 1.5-point favorites at home. However, that line has flipped after South Carolina opened as a 1-point road favorite, indicating most of the early betting has favored Kentucky.
Kentucky may be the biggest surprise in the SEC this year. In addition to being 4-0 overall, the Wildcats are already 2-0 in conference play. They have knocked off both Florida and Mississippi State, two teams that were ranked at the time Kentucky beat them. The key for Kentucky has been the emergence of dual-threat quarterback Terry Wilson, who has helped give the Wildcats a dynamic rushing attack. The Kentucky defense also deserves plenty of credit, allowing just 13 points per game thus far.
South Carolina also appears to be a team on the rise in the SEC East. The Gamecocks couldn’t quite handle Georgia earlier in the season, but they’ve taken care of business against both Coastal Carolina and Vanderbilt. Obviously, they’ll need a lot of help in order to catch Georgia atop the division. However, South Carolina can still establish themselves as the second-best team in the division if they can knock off Kentucky.
After years of South Carolina dominating this rivalry, the Wildcats have won four straight games against the Gamecocks. To be fair, all of those games have been decided by 10 points or less, so Kentucky has been forced to win some close games. However, South Carolina hasn’t beat Kentucky since 2013 when Steve Spurrier was the head coach.
This game is essentially a tossup, and the close spread reflects that. However, I’m going to lean toward Kentucky to get the win and cover the small spread. With the Wildcats being the home team, it’s a little easier to side with them. Moreover, I truly believe Kentucky is the real deal after their hot start.
Beating a young Florida team that’s still rebuilding could have been a little bit of luck, but there’s no denying that Kentucky’s 28-7 win over Mississippi State last week is proof that the Wildcats deserve their no. 17 ranking. They dominated almost every aspect of the game against a team that was off to an equally exceptional start to the season. If Kentucky can play like that against Mississippi State, they can surely do the same against South Carolina this week.
The key for the Wildcats is their running game. Benny Snell Jr. continues to be one of the most underrated running backs in the SEC. He found the end zone four times against Mississippi State and is on pace to run for over 1,600 yards this season, averaging 6.2 yards per carry. Having Wilson as a quarterback who’s also a running threat has made a big difference for Snell. Opposing teams can’t just focus on Snell. They also have to respect that Wilson can run. Against Florida, Wilson gained over 100 yards on the ground, so there’s no doubt he’s a dangerous runner.
Of course, the Gamecocks are strong defensively and won’t break easily, especially with Wilson still leaving something to be desired as a passer. However, one could have said the same thing about Mississippi State prior to last week. The Kentucky running game didn’t go wild against the Bulldogs last week. However, they were able to wear down MSU by staying committed to the run, totaling 47 rush attempts compared to 14 passes. The Wildcats may be able to do something similar to South Carolina, who lost to Georgia in a similar fashion a few weeks ago.
Meanwhile, the Kentucky defense also deserves a lot of the credit for the team’s fast start. In two games against SEC opponents, the Wildcats have allowed just 23 total points. South Carolina may be the best offensive team the Cats have faced this season, but the Gamecocks are still not a dynamic offense that can just line up and expect to score 30 points.
South Carolina relies on staying balanced and wearing teams out with their new up-tempo offense. However, Kentucky has done a good job this season of limiting the damage their opponents do on the ground and forcing the team’s quarterback to beat them. South Carolina quarterback Jake Bentley is more of a game manager than a guy who can carry his team on his back. If Kentucky is able to slow up the running game the way they did last week when Mississippi State gained just 56 yards rushing, the Wildcats should have another strong outing defensively.
To be honest, this game could go either way. But Kentucky has two wins this year over SEC teams that were favored to beat them, so I’m not going to discount their accomplishments. That doesn’t mean South Carolina can’t beat them. But with the Wildcats at home, I’ll take my chances that Kentucky’s hot start will continue.