The South Alabama Jaguars hope to start their 2018 season with a win when they host the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs. Kickoff for this matchup is scheduled for 7:00 EST on Saturday, September 1, at Ladd-Peebles Stadium in Mobile, Alabama. Fans can watch the game on ESPN+.
Oddsmakers list the Bulldogs as 10-point road favorites in this game. There is also an over/under set at 51 points. Click here to check out a full list of college football odds for this week’s games.
The Jaguars are a program in transition after head coach Joey Jones resigned following last year’s 4-8 campaign. Jones had been the coach at South Alabama since their first season as a program in 2009, taking them from an FCS program to a team that played in bowl games in both 2014 and 2016. Clearly, there is a strong foundation in place for his replacement Steve Campbell, who joins South Alabama after four seasons with Central Arkansas. However, there is plenty of work for Campbell to do in order to get the Jaguars back to a bowl game in 2018.
Meanwhile, Louisiana Tech appears to have a good thing going with Skip Holtz. The Bulldogs have been to a bowl game in each of the last four seasons, winning the Conference-USA West division twice during that span. Louisiana Tech took a small step backward last year, settling for a 7-6 record on the heels of three-straight 9-win seasons. But after a convincing 51-10 bowl win over SMU to close out 2017, the Bulldogs feel good about themselves heading into 2018.
These two teams met last September, with the Bulldogs winning at home 34-16. However, it was a 1-point game heading into the 4th quarter, so there may not be as much separating these teams as that scoreline might indicate, especially with the Jaguars getting home-field advantage this time around.
With the continuity and consistency Louisiana Tech has had under Holtz, the Bulldogs are far more likely to get off to a fast start this season than South Alabama. The Jaguars have a lot of things they need to figure out early in the year. Even at home, I don’t see them keeping up with Tech for four quarters. Much like the meeting last year between these two teams, the Bulldogs will pull away late and cover the 10-point spread. I feel good about leaning toward Louisiana Tech in this game.
The Bulldogs were fairly average on offense last season, at least compared to the previous few years when they won nine games. But they have a lot coming back this year, and that continuity should lead to instant success. Junior J’Mar Smith probably isn’t the best quarterback in Conference-USA. But he limited himself to just five interceptions last season and is always a threat with his legs. When you factor in that Louisiana Tech will return four of their top five receivers from last season, there’s every reason to expect the Bulldogs to be sharp offensively in their opener.
While South Alabama has a fair amount of experience coming back on defense, there are weaknesses that Tech may be able to expose. For starters, the Jaguars are lacking in proven pass rushers. They were one of the worst teams in the country last year at putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks. If they allow an experienced quarterback like Smith and a group of veteran receivers time to operate, they’re bound to get burned sooner or later. Even with some talent in the secondary, the South Alabama defense won’t survive long in this game without putting pressure on the quarterback.
On the other side of the ball, South Alabama is still undecided on their starting quarterback. During training camp, it’s been a three-way battle between Cole Garvin, Evan Orth, and redshirt freshman Cephus Johnson. Garvin finished last season as the starter. But he also had a 53% completion percentage and the same number of interceptions as touchdowns last year, so he’s not exactly a safe bet to keep his job. Campbell has floated the idea of all three playing against Louisiana Tech. That could keep the Bulldogs confused for a little while, but at some point, the Jaguars will need some continuity at that position to get the offense going.
Whoever ends up playing quarterback will have some quality receivers to throw to. However, the Jaguars were one of the worst rushing teams in the country last year. They averaged just 3.1 yards per rushing play in 2017. Heading into the season, South Alabama lacks both a proven running back and a reliable offensive line, two things that figure to hold back the USA offense regardless of the quarterback.
All things considered, the Jaguars have too many problems to keep this game close for four quarters. Louisiana Tech is a far more experienced and complete team. I don’t think the Bulldogs will have much trouble winning this game or covering the 10-point spread. This is an easy lean in favor of Louisiana Tech.