Georgia Southern at South Alabama: Sun Belt Betting Preview and Prediction

It’s time to check in with the Georgia Power Company.

They say that a football team’s most-marked improvement comes between Weeks 1 and 2, but it’s a jump from the 1st to 3rd outing which has characterized the Georgia Southern Eagles so far in 2019.

Chad Lunsford’s team fared poorly against the SEC in an August opener in Baton Rouge. LSU mowed through the Eagles for 6 touchdowns in the 1st half, and GaSo couldn’t even move the ball against Tiger backups in garbage time of the 55-3 outcome.

Perhaps the Sun Belt representatives were still rattled when taking on the Maine Black Bears next to Beautiful Eagle Creek in the following game. Georgia Southern fell behind in the 1st quarter and won 26-18 after an anxious 2nd half. QB Justin Tomlin was still just as ineffectual by air, though he did join the offensive line and scat-back Matt LaRoche in producing a solid ground attack to build on.

Then the program woke up in the 3rd game against the Big Ten, playing noble defense against surprising Minnesota and crumpling Tanner Morgan with 4 sacks. The offense didn’t do enough to prevail after 60 minutes, but a 35-32 loss to the Golden Gophers was a step-up from an ordinary win over the FCS.

Sun Belt squads have been able to make hay against the Power-5 in 2019. Appalachian State was amazing in an upset victory over state rival UNC, made all the more impressive by North Carolina’s epic upset bid vs Clemson. But the South Alabama Jaguars are not in the David-battles-Goliath club, having lost all 4 games against FBS opponents. USA was competitive for much of a 35-21 opening loss to Nebraska and a more-recent 2-TD loss to Louisiana-Monroe, but out-scored about 80-10 in a pair of FBS vs FBS scrums in-between.

GaSo dropped its 1st conference outing to Louisiana last weekend, but appears to not be in nearly as much danger of a losing campaign as USA. College football odds-makers have taken heed of that, marking the visiting Eagles a 2-touchdown favorite when visiting South Alabama this Thursday night.

But gambling action since then has shortened the Vegas line considerably.

Who: Georgia Southern Eagles at South Alabama Jaguars

When: Thursday, October 3rd, 7:30 PM EST

Where: Ladd-Peebles Stadium, Mobile, AL

Lines: GaSo (-11.5) at USA (+11.5) / O/U Total: (47)

Predicting Georgia Southern at South Alabama ATS

AL.com reports that running back Tre Minter is in fine form after returning from a head injury, but that the underdog Jaguars may have other injury concerns headed into Week 6:

Minter missed virtually all of the Memphis game with a concussion and carried the ball only eight times against UAB, but is still on pace for a 1,000-yard season. He ran for 150 yards and added 32 more as a receiver vs. ULM, as South Alabama coaches made a concerted effort to get him the ball. Johnson ran the ball well enough to keep defenses honest and not allow them to key on Minter every play. Minter hasn’t really broken a big kick return yet this year, but it’s probably coming.

South Alabama has a short week of preparation before Thursday’s home game against Georgia Southern, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. The Eagles are on the same schedule, having lost 37-24 to Louisiana on Saturday to fall to 1-3 this season. One thing the short week means is that USA’s injured players — notably defensive end Tyree Turner — have less time to potentially get ready. However, USA has a full 10 days before an Oct. 16 game at Troy, so Turner could be back by then.

Speaking of defensive players, are speculators thinking that GaSo’s pass rush against Minnesota was a fluke? Quin Williams is a burly physical specimen for a Sun Belt linebacker, and loomed large in the shoot-out with P.J. Fleck’s team. The Eagle edge-rush against the Golden Gophers came on the road, where it is more difficult to get a jump on the snap count.

The heavy pressure went away in the loss to the Ragin’ Cajuns, though, and defensive backs like Donald Rutledge wound-up making a lot of the tackles.

Shai Werts also returned to the fold for GaSo at QB last week, turning in a quiet performance but rushing for nearly 100 yards. Werts is seen as a catalyst for the Eagles’ 11-on-11 ground game and play-action passing efforts.

Prediction and ATS + Over/Under Recommendations

Werts spent the summer working on getting cleared from false drug charges, which he did, but he still had to deal with injury as the season was kicking off. He could be due for a big performance now that his fast feet are again wet after the start vs Louisiana.

Sun Belt games can be notoriously hard to predict when there’s only a small difference between the teams, but remember that the OOC slate tends to flatten all mid-majors out for a while.

GaSo’s record at the end of 2019-20 should look much shinier than that of Thursday’s hosts, and the chances of an explosive visiting offense make the moving markets vulnerable to a wager on the favorites ATS in addition to the Over (47).

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