The No. 23 Baylor Bears host the SMU Mustangs on Saturday, September 10th in a common non-conference showdown between these two schools. The Bears have won 12 straight meetings over the Mustangs with their last loss coming in 1986. They won 56-21 on the road last season.
Baylor (1-0) showed no ill-effects of losing Art Briles in its opener last week. The Bears rolled to a 55-7 victory over Northwestern State, barely failing to cover the 50-point spread.
SMU (1-0) managed to win a rare opener as it beat North Texas 34-21 on the road as 7-point favorites last week. The Mustangs went for 572 total yards of offense in the victory.
Kickoff inside McLane Stadium in Waco is scheduled for 3:30 EST Saturday afternoon with FOX Sports 1 providing the television coverage. Oddsmakers have pegged Baylor as a 32-point favorite over SMU with a total set of 76 points.
I know Baylor is coming off a 55-7 win over Northwestern State, but it actually failed to cover as 50-point favorites in that game. The Bears still have the same issues they faced before with a new head coach and a ton of talent lost, and that will show up more this week against a better opponent in SMU.
Baylor only has one returning starter on its offensive and defensive lines, so it has all kinds of questions up front on both sides of the ball. This team will still be solid and compete in the Big 12, but asking it to beat SMU by more than 32 points to cover this spread is asking too much.
This is a vastly improved SMU team that is undervalued after going just 2-10 during a rebuilding year in Chad Morris’ first year on the job. But Morris has his systems in place and a lot more talent in 2016 with 16 starters back and only 20 lettermen lost.
Morris improved the offense from 11.1 points per game in 2014 to 27.8 points per game in 2015. This is an offense that can keep up with a lot of teams. Nine starters are back on this side of the ball, including do-everything QB Matt Davis. He threw for 2,263 yards and 16 touchdowns last year while also rushing for 761 yards and 10 scores.
Morris’ offense was hitting on all cylinders in a 34-21 win over North Texas as 7-point road favorites in the opener. The Mustangs racked up 572 yards of total offense and outgained the Mean Green by 178 yards. Davis threw for 155 yards and two touchdowns and added 91 rushing yards in the win.
Last year, against a much better Baylor team than the 2016 version, SMU hung tough for a half. In fact, the Mustangs only trailed 21-28 at halftime before getting outscored 28-0 after intermission in a 35-point loss as 35-point dogs. But given the improvement SMU has made this season and the decline that Baylor has made, getting 32 points is simply too much in the rematch.
Plays on underdogs of 31.5 or more points (SMU) – after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS since 1992.
Plays on underdogs of 31.5 or more points (SMU) – after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS since 1992.
The Mustangs are 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games. The Bears are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall. Baylor is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a straight up win.