I am known for giving service academy programs the benefit of the doubt. Teams like Army, Navy, and Air Force are considered a nuisance by the mainstream sports media and their style of football is misrepresented and belittled on television every weekend.
Fat ex-SEC coaches on ESPN: “Well, Air Force has that leetle bitty triple-option offayance, but ah gotta believe they’ll lose to Big Hype State just lahk ah want ’em to.”
That’s the kind of media bias that leads to slanted numbers at the sportsbook and strong moneyline/ATS wagers on the academies. Heck, most pundits don’t even know the actual concept of the Flexbone offense, which shouldn’t be named after a single play any more than Mike Leach’s playbook at Washington State should be called the “Bubble Screen” attack.
But the worst thing a handicapper can succumb to is stereotyped thinking. Can the service academies be overvalued by Las Vegas headed into a game? Sure, and their opponents can be undervalued.
We may have an example of that in San Jose State’s visit to Colorado Springs this weekend.
Air Force looks like a pretty good team again in 2019, holding a 2-1 record and coming off a closely-contested scrum with the powerful Boise Blue in Week 4. Yet if bookmakers (and gamblers) are taking the visitors from SJSU lightly, it may be because they’re historians instead of football fans.
Remember how the SEC’s floor was supposedly higher than a lot of Group-of-5 ceilings? San Jose State whipped Arkansas on the road last Saturday. But an opening point spread of (-20) on the host Falcons (reduced a little to (-18) by the gambling public) has been set by Las Vegas odds-makers as if the Spartans are the same old cupcake we’ve been watching for a generation.
Who: San Jose State Spartans vs Air Force Falcons
When: Friday, September 27th, 8 PM EST
Where: Falcon Stadium, Colorado Springs, CO
Lines: SJSU (+18) at AF (-18) / O/U Total: (55)
It would appear that the gambling community sees the Spartans’ win over Arkansas as a total fluke. The odds on SJSU upsetting Air Force on Friday night are about the same as they would be if the team hadn’t surprised bookmakers on the previous weekend.
But even though Arkansas is anything but a top-tier Power-5 school, the Razorbacks are still a physical team – and any offensive line that can push them around – San Jose State averaged 5 yards per carry and QB Josh Love passed for over 400 yards in the 31-24 win – can hold its own against lighter academy lines.
More on the 2-1 Spartans’ big day:
San Jose wasted no time as its first play of the game came as a 50-yard bomb to Spartans wide receiver Bailey Gaither. Six plays later, Spartans quarterback Josh Love connected with junior wide receiver JaQuan Blackwell for a 3-yard touchdown pass to give San Jose State a 7-0 lead just over two minutes into the game. After a punt and a missed 46-yard field goal on their next two drives, the Spartans found themselves in trouble after Love threw a ball into double coverage which was picked off by Razorbacks junior defensive back Kamren Curl.
San Jose State’s defense came to life, creating a turnover of their own on the first play of the second quarter. SJSU linebacker Ethan Aguayo, who entered the game leading the nation in tackles with 17 stops per game, picked off a pass from Razorbacks quarterback Nick Starkel. Aguayo’s pick would be the first of two first-half interceptions for the Spartans. In total, the Spartans defense held Arkansas to seven points and 238 yards in the first half.
Unlike Army and Navy, the Air Force Falcons are not always tied into a so-called “triple option” offense but run a multiple attack with shotgun and pistol looks. Trey Calhoun was praised for his coaching job last weekend as the Falcons bothered Boise State for 4 quarters, and while the offense wasn’t exactly dynamite, the Air Force defense was alive with a solid pass rush. Veteran LB Lakota Wills finished the game with 8 total tackles and a QB sack.
It was an improvement from the previous week in which DB Jeremy Fejedelem (who may or may not hail from Bethlehem) was forced to make 12 stops, including on blitzes designed to supplement a weaker front-7. Colorado nearly vanquished Air Force in a Week 3 overtime.
I’ve been burned on the point spread by Air Force before, especially when the team is a heavy favorite. The Falcons are a quality pigskin outfit but simply are not designed to blow FBS squads out.
If San Jose State was having a typical dismal season, you could surmise that the Falcons’ overall execution and precise style would be enough to cover a 3-score spread as the visitors made mistakes. But last week’s upset win will give the Spartans confidence to fight for all 4 quarters.
Air Force is indeed the true favorite…but not a minus 18-point handicap at all.
Take SJSU to cover with 2 or 3 betting units.