Last season, BetFirm predicted a “long night” in San Diego between the Air Force Falcons and the SDSU Aztecs, with lots of offensive fireworks. It turned out to be a moderate 28-24 scoring night, partially (or mostly) brought upon by wet weather.
What will the character of this Mountain West rivalry scrum be like this time around? Maybe with a few less points than most FBS odds-makers are predicting.
Who: Air Force Falcons at San Diego State Aztecs
When: Saturday, October 13th, 9 PM EST
Where: Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, CA
Lines: Air Force (+10) at SDSU (-10) / O/U Total: (45)
Air Force and SDSU each came out of week 5 pulling off impressive upsets. Air Force blew out Navy (who was a 2 point favorite), winning 35-7, while the Aztecs beat Boise State (a 13.5 point favorite) 19-13 on the road.
While the Air Force win over the Midshipmen turned heads, the way SDSU dismantled the Boise offense was probably a bigger story in the grand scheme. Boise State QB Brett Rypien was averaging 362 passing yards per game (without an interception) through 4 weeks; the Aztecs held him to 170 passing yards and snagged 2 interceptions, improving to 4-1 on the season in the process. The Aztecs got to Rypien consistently, sacking him 4 times.
Put upon with terrible injuries and missing Christian Chapman and Juwan Washington from the backfield, the Aztecs put on a demolition-derby defense that left Boise black and Blue.
Rypien finished 21-for-41 for 170 yards with the two picks and four sacks. He ended the game with two awful decisions, an intentional grounding penalty on second-and-2 and a never-had-a-chance deep ball into triple coverage on fourth-and-9. The Broncos had gotten the ball down six with 1:59 to go and a chance to win. Coach Bryan Harsin, who lost at home for the fourth time in his five seasons, placed the blame for Rypien’s ugly day on the protection, which seemed better than at Oklahoma State but still wasn’t good enough. Rypien wasn’t available to the media. “I thought Brett showed extreme toughness today,” Harsin said. “Bottom line, he can’t protect himself out there.”
“I still think we’re a really good team,” said Harsin after the game on Saturday, October 6. San Diego State is the only team since 2000 to defeat Boise State twice at Albertsons Stadium. It was also the Broncos’ eighth loss on the Blue since 2000.
It got so bad for the Broncos’ offense that they turned to redshirt freshman backup Chase Cord early in the fourth quarter, trailing 13-7. Cord, who operates the running attack the Broncos used with senior QB Montell Cozart to close out the Aztecs last year, ran four straight plays and had the team moving until a holding penalty sabotaged the drive. Rypien came back in and completed a pass but his third-and-6 throw went through the arms of true freshman wide receiver Khalil Shakir. The Broncos punted, and moments later San Diego State busted a 72-yard touchdown run for a 19-7 lead.
The Aztecs held the Broncos to a miserable 229 total yards, 79 of them in the final few minutes of play. Boise State recorded just 2 yards of offense in the entire 1st quarter. SDSU defensive back Darren Hall led the way with 9 tackles, a sack, and a forced fumble, a truly dominant display.
Against Navy, the Air Force rushing game saw a true resurgence. The Falcons rushed for 257 yards and 4 scores as QB Donald Hammond III carried 19 times for 60 yards and 3 TDs. Hammond also had his best game of the year through the air, completing 6 of 10 attempts for 142 yards and a score.
Service academy defenses are just like “regular” defenses in that they tend to struggle against really good offenses and feast on bad ones, but to a more-pronounced degree.
Air Force would be almost assured of holding Old Dominion or Charlotte to less than 20 points, but would give up 20+ to Alabama 100% of the time. The question is – does San Diego State have the offense to take advantage of the Academy’s limited athleticism and size in the front-7?
As good as the Aztecs have been on defense, the San Diego State offense is far from explosive. The injuries will take a toll, especially now that the magical night vs BSU is past. The highest point total SDSU has earned in a game all year is 28.
This one could be on course to a low-scoring, defensive clash.
10 points is a “safer” spread to pick on either side of, since so many 10-point spreads end in a push. But I’m liking the under in a contest for which the Air Force defense is tailor-made. The Falcons took advantage of one wounded group last week when it beat a less-than-usual Navy squad.
Chances are, the Aztecs will win straight-up and keep their hot streak going. But it will be a grind until the 1st string backfield is back in action.
Take the under (45) at Qualcomm.