Two teams that will begin the 2019 season desperate for a win will meet up on opening weekend as the Rutgers Scarlet Knights play host to the UMass Minutemen. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:15 EST on Friday, August 30, at HighPoint.com Stadium in Piscataway, New Jersey. Fans can tune in to the Big Ten Network to watch the game.
The Scarlet Knights are listed as 15.5-point favorites at home. The over/under for the game is 56 points. Be sure to check out a full list of this week’s college football odds.
There is perhaps no team in the country more desperate for a win in their season opener than Rutgers. Head coach Chris Ash is just 7-29 during his three years with the Scarlet Knights. It was surprising to many to see him retained after last year, which means he’s sitting on the hottest of hot seats heading into the 2019 season.
The good news for the Scarlet Knights is that it can’t get much worse than last season. After Rutgers won their season opener against Texas State, they lost 11 games in a row to finish 1-11 and winless in Big Ten play. To be fair, they play in the loaded Big Ten East division, so they play a slew of national powers on a yearly basis. But in games against lowly Kansas and MAC foe Buffalo, the Scarlet Knights were outscored 97-27, which is beyond pitiful and creates little reason for hope heading into 2019.
As for UMass, they are starting anew with Walt Bell as their head coach. Mark Whipple’s second stint as head coach of the Minutemen ended last season after the team went 10-26 in three years, including back-to-back 4-8 campaigns the last two seasons. The Minutemen, who play as an independent, think they can do better, so they parted ways with Whipple and hired Bell to replace him.
Of course, this will be Bell’s first crack at being a head coach. UMass is hoping the 35-year-old will turn out to be the next great offensive-minded coach and put the Minutemen on a winning path. Despite being a young head coach, Bell has had stints as an offensive coordinator at Arkansas State, Maryland, and Florida State, leading UMass to think that he’s ready to become a head coach.
With UMass being new to the FBS level, there’s not much history between these two programs. They’ve met four times previously, but not since 1978, a game that Rutgers won 21-11. Over 40 years later, the two northeast schools are set to meet again.
It’s possible that the oddsmakers know something that I don’t, but I can’t buy Rutgers covering a spread that’s greater than two touchdowns against anyone. The Scarlet Knights are members of the Big Ten in name only; they are closer to the MAC in terms of talent level. To be fair, UMass has problems as well, but I see this as a game defined by futility on both sides, and that means a close, ugly affair in which Rutgers fails to cover the spread.
It’s important to note just how terrible Rutgers was on offense last season. Incumbent starter at quarterback Artur Sitkowski completed less than 50% of his passes, averaged four yards per attempt and threw just four touchdowns to 18 interceptions. That’s historically bad and atrocious, even for a true freshman. The fact that Texas Tech grad transfer McClane Carter hasn’t won the job over Sitkowski a week before game day reflects poorly on both quarterbacks and Rutger’s chances of having competent quarterback play early in the season.
Of course, the Scarlet Knights are surprisingly confident about the state of their running game ahead of the season. Returning backs Raheem Blackshear and Isaih both rushed for over 500 yards in 2018. But a one-dimensional offense isn’t going to be enough to cover a 15.5-point spread. The Scarlet Knights will still need something out of one of their quarterbacks and an unproven set of receivers, and there’s no guarantee that will happen.
On the other hand, I’m not going to gush about the UMass offense. But they should have a little better quarterback play than Rutgers. The Minutemen lost two quarterbacks from last year’s team, but they retain senior Michael Curtis. He was solid in limited action last season, throwing four touchdowns and two interceptions. While Curtis won’t have the benefit of Andy Isabella, who caught over 100 passes for the Minutemen last year, he will have a set capable receivers who will know the senior quarterback well. To be fair, there are questions about the UMass rushing attack and offensive line, but Rutgers also has questions about their defensive line.
All things considered, I just can’t buy that Rutgers is over two touchdowns better than UMass. Getting blown out time after time by superior opponents last year doesn’t do much to help the Scarlet Knights, and it certainly isn’t great for their confidence. If Rutgers can get their running game going, they should do enough to win. But I think the Minutemen will do enough to stay within striking distance and beat the spread.