The Rutgers Scarlet Knights will look to start their 2018 season with a win when they host the Texas State Bobcats. The game is set for noon EST on Saturday, September 1, at High Point Solutions Stadium in Piscataway, New Jersey. Fans can watch the game on the Big Ten Network.
According to our Week 1 college football odds, Rutgers is a 16-point favorite over Texas State. Early betting has favored the Scarlet Knights, who opened at -13.5. The game also has an over/under of 47 points.
The Scarlet Knights have had a rough time since joining the Big Ten. However, Chris Ash appears to have them moving in the right direction. After going 2-10 and winless in Big Ten play during Ash’s first season in 2016, Rutgers went 4-8 last year, including a 3-6 record in conference play. If the Scarlet Knights can make a similar leap this season, they may be able to secure a bowl bid. Of course, it starts with taking care of business against Texas State.
Much like Ash, Everett Withers is entering his third season at Texas State. Also like Ash and Rutgers, the Bobcats have really struggled over the past couple of seasons. Texas State has gone 2-10 in each of the last two seasons, with just one win in conference play. Needless to say, the Bobcats remain very much a work in progress. However, entering his third season, Withers needs to improve the team’s win total in 2018 before he ends up on the hot seat.
This will be the first-ever game between Rutgers and Texas State. It’s a rather unusual matchup, but with both teams going through a rebuilding period, each team will see this as a winnable game.
Rutgers is definitely the better team, but I don’t like the direction this spread has moved in since it opened. The Scarlet Knights aren’t prolific enough on offense to make me feel confident that they’ll be able to cover a point spread that’s now over two touchdowns. I expect Rutgers to win the game, but I’ll still lean toward Texas State and the points.
Part of what concerns me about Rutgers is that they’ll be starting true freshman Artur Sitkowski at quarterback. I have no doubt that the 6’5’’ Sitkowski has arm talent, but that doesn’t mean he’s ready to play big-time college football. Based on how inept Rutgers has been at the quarterback position the past couple of seasons, Sitkowski being named the starter is more of an indictment of the other quarterbacks on the roster than an indication that the freshman is ready.
It also concerns me that Rutgers has so little experience at wide receiver. Projected starters Bo Melton and Hunter Hayek combined for 12 catches last season. With a true freshman quarterback throwing the ball to unproven wide receivers, I’m not sure if the Rutgers passing game is going to be proficient in the season opener, especially with the Bobcats being experienced at the cornerback position.
The Scarlet Knights will have to lean heavily on their running game in order to move the ball. The Rutgers backfield is actually in good shape with Boston College grad transfer Jonathan Hilliman and sophomore Raheem Blackshear, who showed flashes of brilliance as a freshman in 2017. But the Texas State defense is poised to show some improvement from a year ago. They’ve been young the past couple of seasons but now have a fair amount of experience under their belt. The Scarlet Knights can’t afford to be one-dimensional on offense and expect to steamroll the Bobcats with their running game.
Naturally, the Bobcats face similar questions on offense. Sophomore Willie Jones III appears to be the choice at quarterback to start the season. He attempted just 37 passes last year, so he is also lacking in experience. However, he’s athletic enough to make some plays with his legs, which should help. The Bobcats also return an experienced stable of running backs and an offensive line that has more experience than you think for such a young group.
The Rutgers defense, meanwhile, brings back most of their starts from a year ago. Of course, that group had all sorts of problems. Even with more experience, the Scarlet Knights aren’t likely to dominate on that side of the ball. I expect the Bobcats to have enough success offensively to stay within striking distance.
When I remember that last year Rutgers lost to an Eastern Michigan team that ended up going 5-7, I have a hard time believing the Scarlet Knights will cover a 16-point spread against Texas State. I just can’t be sure that Rutgers will be good enough offensively in their season opener to pull away in this game. The Bobcats should have enough experience to keep this game competitive, even if they don’t have the horses to pull off the upset. I’ll take my chances with Texas State and the points.