Bragging rights in the city of Houston will be on the line when the Rice Owls play host to the Houston Cougars this weekend. Game time is set for noon EST on Saturday, September 1, at Rice Stadium in Houston, Texas. Fans will be able to watch the game on CBS Sports Network.
Based on the Week 1 odds, Houston is a 24-point favorite to beat Rice. That line has moved up in recent days, as the Cougars opened as 21-point favorites. The game also has an over/under of 56 points.
As expected, the Cougars took a little step back in 2017 after Tom Herman left to coach at Texas. However, first-year coach Major Applewhite was able to guide Houston to a 7-5 record, highlighted by an upset win over previously undefeated South Florida. After that transition year, the Cougars are expecting to get back on top of the American Conference. After all, Herman recruited well during his time at Houston, giving Applewhite plenty of talent on the roster.
Rice, meanwhile, is entering a new era under first-time head coach Mike Bloomgren. The Owls were just 4-20 over the past two seasons under David Bailiff, so change was clearly needed. Of course, Bloomgren has a lot of work to do, which became obvious during the team’s season opener last weekend against Prairie View A&M. The Owls took a 16-0 lead, only to fall behind 28-19 heading into the 4th quarter. Rice needed a touchdown, safety, and last-second field goal in the 4th quarter to escape with a 31-28 win over an FCS opponent.
These two intra-city rivals met last September with the Cougars winning 38-3. Houston actually took their foot off the pedal and didn’t score at all in the second half. Otherwise, the score could have gotten out of control after the Cougars doubled the Owls in total yards. Obviously, Rice is hoping to at least make this year’s contest a little more competitive.
This game could have a 34-point spread or even a 44-point spread and I’d still probably lean toward the Cougars. Rice may have survived what would have been an embarrassing defeat against an FCS opponent, but that game tells me that they might be one of the worst teams at the FBS level this season. Against a team with Houston’s talent, I give them almost no chance to keep this game close, much less win it. I’ll gladly take the Cougars to cover the 24 points.
The Cougars return one of the most dynamic dual-threat quarterbacks in the country in D’Eriq King. Baylor grad transfer Terence Williams joined the Cougars over the summer to help reinforce the rest of the backfield. The presence of Williams will ensure that Rice has to account for at least two rushing threats in the Houston backfield.
The Cougars, however, did lose their top two receivers from a year ago. This year’s projected starters, Courtney Lark and Keith Corbin, combined for just 23 receptions last season. Of course, King was surprisingly accurate as a passer last season, completing passes at a 65% clip. The Cougars will also find ways to get the dynamic Bryson Smith, potentially the quarterback of the future, on the field as much as possible.
With the Cougars installing a more up-tempo offense that won’t be afraid to push the ball down the field, they’ll put a lot of pressure on the Rice defense. Even with inexperienced receivers, they won’t be afraid to be aggressive. After Prairie View’s quarterback threw for 244 yards and three touchdowns against Rice, I’m confident King will have a good game, especially since Rice also struggled to contain the Prarie View rushing attack.
To be fair, the Owls were able to run the ball effectively last week. The quarterback tandem of Jackson Tyner and Shawn Stankavage combined for less than 100 yards through the air. But as a former Stanford assistant, Bloomgren is going to hang his hat on being able to run the ball, which the Owls did to the tune of 310 yards and 6.2 yards per carry last week against Prairie View.
Of course, running the ball against an FCS team and running the ball against Houston are two different things. Defensive tackle Ed Oliver is a potential top-5 pick in next year’s draft. With Oliver, Jarard Carter and TCU transfer Isaiah Chambers, the Cougars have a defensive line that’s absolutely loaded. I’d be shocked if a Rice offensive line that’s a little inexperienced is able to have much success at all against Houston’s defensive front. If the Owls can’t run the ball, they’re not going to have much success on offense, so I’m not sure if they’ll be able to eclipse the three points they had against Houston last year.
With the Rice offense completely overmatched in this game, it shouldn’t be that difficult for the Cougars to score enough points to cover the 24-point spread. Even without a lot of established playmakers around him, King shouldn’t have trouble leading scoring drives against the Rice defense. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Cougars run up the score a little and far surpass the 24-point spread.