Teams from the Big Ten and SEC will meet this weekend as the Purdue Boilermakers host the Missouri Tigers. Game time is 7:30 EST on Saturday, September 15, at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Indiana. Fans can watch the game on The Big Ten Network.
If we look at this week’s college football odds, the Tigers are listed as 7-point road favorites. That line is down some after Missouri opened as 7.5-point favorites.
Coming off a promising 2017 season that ended with a bowl victory, the Boilermakers are off to a rough start in 2018. Purdue has started the year 0-2, with both losses coming at home. The Boilermakers were done in by turnovers in their opener against Northwestern, as a 4th quarter comeback fell a little short. Things got even worse last week when Purdue lost to Eastern Michigan 20-19, as a missed PAT in the 2nd quarter ended up being the difference in the game.
Missouri, on the other hand, is off to a fast start this season. They blew out Tennessee-Martin 51-14 in their opener and had no trouble doing the same to Wyoming last week, beating the Cowboys 40-13. Quarterback Drew Lock is putting up video game numbers thus far, already throwing eight touchdowns with no interceptions. Of course, a road game against a Big Ten team will provide a legitimate test before the Tigers begin SEC play.
When these two teams met last September, the Boilermakers crushed the Tigers in Missouri 35-3. Lock struggled mightily as Purdue dominated every aspect of the game. The Boilermakers need to repeat that kind of performance on Saturday. A third straight loss would make it virtually impossible for Purdue to get to a bowl game considering the Big Ten schedule ahead of them. Missouri, meanwhile, needs to make sure they don’t look ahead to next week’s showdown with SEC East favorite Georgia.
I know Missouri hasn’t faced tough competition yet, but I’m going to choose to believe in the Tigers. So much has changed for Missouri since their lopsided loss against Purdue a year ago. Going back to last season, the Tigers have won eight of their last nine games, losing only their bowl game against Texas. With Purdue a mess coming off that disappointing loss to Eastern Michigan, I can see this game getting out of hand, so I’ll lean toward the Tigers to cover with ease.
The biggest thing that stands out about Purdue’s loss last week was how easy it was for Eastern Michigan to throw the ball. EMU quarterback Tyler Wiegers completed 20 of 28 passes for 312 yards. Unless Purdue was playing a prevent defense while nursing a three-touchdown lead, there’s no way a MAC team should have been able to rip apart the Purdue secondary like that. Since we know that wasn’t the case, it’s obvious to say that Purdue has a troubled pass defense.
Of all the teams you don’t want to face when you have concerns in the secondary, Missouri is near the top of the list. Lock has had his struggles the past couple of seasons against elite defenses, but he almost always posts big numbers against mediocre defensive teams. Even without a strong running game, the Tigers will be dangerous through the air. Lock has thrown four touchdown passes in each of his first two games this season, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see him throw four more against Purdue after the way the Boilermakers struggled against EMU last week.
Meanwhile, the Purdue offense still doesn’t have a clear starter at quarterback. Elijah Sindelar and David Blough have been sharing time going back to last season and Jeff Brohm still hasn’t seen enough to choose one over the other. Neither has stood out much this season. Blough has been more accurate but is only averaging 4.7 yards per pass attempt and has no touchdown passes. Sindelar, meanwhile, has two touchdown passes but three interceptions.
To be fair, the Purdue rushing attack has been excellent the first two games of the season. D.J. Knox and Markell Jones are both averaging over seven yards per carry. However, the Boilermakers have struggled to turn that production into points. Purdue had 341 yards rushing against Eastern Michigan and should have been able to turn that into more than 19 points if they weren’t held back by poor quarterback play.
In the past, Missouri hasn’t exactly been a sound defensive team. However, they have real talent in the front-7 this season. The Tigers could be a little vulnerable in the secondary, but Purdue doesn’t have the quarterback play to take advantage. If Missouri’s front-7 is able to keep the Purdue ground game contained, it could be a long day for the Boilermakers offensively.
To me, this game has mismatch written all over it. Missouri is great at passing while Purdue was dreadful defending the pass last week. On the other side, the Tigers could be vulnerable against the pass but the Boilermakers don’t have the quarterbacks to expose that weakness. That could equal a lopsided win in Missouri’s favor, which makes me comfortable swallowing the points and learning toward the Tigers to win and cover easily.