A pair of teams moving in opposite directions meet this week as the no. 23 Boston College Eagles visit the Purdue Boilermakers. Game time is set for noon EST on Saturday, September 22, at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Indiana. Fans can watch the game on ESPN2.
Boston College opened the week favored by 6.5 points. However, early betting has now made the Eagles 7-point favorites on the road. Click here to see a full list of this week’s college football odds.
The Eagles entered the season with high hopes and they have started to fulfill those aspirations early in the season. To be fair, Boston College’s first two wins came against UMass and Holy Cross. However, the Eagles went on the road last week and beat Wake Forest 41-34 while showing a surprising amount of balance on offense despite being reliant on their running game in recent years. That win has pushed B.C. into the top-25 for the first time since 2008, a clear sign of progress for a program that could be going places in 2018.
Purdue, on the other hand, has started the season 0-3. It’s been a hugely disappointing start after Jeff Brohm made such incredible progress by getting the Boilermakers to a bowl game last year. It’s worth noting that those three losses have come by a combined eight points, so the Boilermakers have been competitive in every game they’ve played. However, all three losses have come at home, including an inexcusable loss to Eastern Michigan a couple weeks ago.
Needless to say, the Boilermakers are desperate for a win as they prepare for their first-ever meeting with Boston College. At this point, getting to a bowl will require some heavy lifting. Purdue almost certainly needs to win this game, especially with three more top-25 teams left on their schedule. Boston College, meanwhile, just wants to keep up their early-season momentum. If they can survive a road trip to Purdue, the Eagles will be well positioned to stay undefeated deep into October.
Despite Purdue’s propensity for losing close games this season, I’m going to swallow the points and lean with the road favorite in this game. Purdue’s level of frustration has to be immense at this point, and Boston College is the type of team that can add to that frustration. If the Eagles can start fast, there’s every chance for them to put the Boilermakers away early. I’ll lean toward Boston College to win this game by more than a touchdown and cover the spread.
The Eagles are masters of the running game behind A.J. Dillon, who’s averaging 7.3 yards per carry this season. That number is a little inflated because of the weak competition B.C. played the first two weeks of the season. However, Dillon ran for 185 yards on 33 carries last week against Wake Forest. He’s a true workhorse back and I’m not sure the Purdue defense can keep him contained for 60 minutes. After all, the Boilermakers let a less daunting Missouri ground game run for 233 yards and 5.1 yards per carry last week. If Dillon has success early in the game, it could be a long day for the Boilermakers.
Naturally, Boston College also excels at running play-action, something they did to perfection against Wake Forest last week. Quarterback Anthony Brown isn’t yet an accomplished player, but he threw for over 300 yards and five touchdowns against Wake Forest. When the Demon Deacons started focusing too much on stopping Dillon, Brown was flawless at running play-action and hitting the defense over the top. I don’t see a Purdue defense that gave up 40 points to Missouri last week being able to stop the B.C. running game without also being vulnerable to downfield throws on play-action.
Ultimately, Purdue’s hopes in this game will come down to their offense being able to score and keep pace with the Eagles. The B.C. defense was definitely vulnerable last week, as they allowed over 500 yards of offense against Wake Forest. Purdue, meanwhile, had a strong offensive showing against Missouri that allowed them to keep coming from behind and making the game close.
However, I’m not convinced last week’s offensive fireworks by the Boilermakers are a sign of things to come. It may have been more of a product of playing a porous Missouri defense. After all, Purdue managed just 19 points the week before against Eastern Michigan. It’s also unclear if last week’s performance was enough for David Blough to finally solidify the starting quarterback job. I’m also not convinced the Boilermakers have the kind of big-play receivers that can torch the B.C. secondary the way Wake Forest did last week.
Perhaps I’m not giving Purdue enough respect for keeping their games close, but I can see them finally having a game in which they get blown out. I have little doubt that Boston College is the best team the Boilermakers have faced this season. I also remain skeptical of the Purdue offense, which is why I trust that the Eagles will eventually build a comfortable lead and cover the 7-point spread.