Playing Last Year’s Champion in College Football

I am always interested in seeing how college football teams fare in certain situations.  That’s because I am a believer that motivational factors play a big role in determining the outcome of a game, especially against the point spread.

One factor I was curious about was how well teams fared before and after playing last year’s conference champion.  I believed that they could potentially be looking ahead to these big games, and then possibly suffering a letdown after playing in one of them.

So, I went back in the database and checked to see how teams performed in this situation in the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 and the ACC over the last five seasons.  I left out the Big East, which is now the American Athletic, simply because there has been a four-way and a three-way tie for the conference title in recent years.

I have gone through each conference and figured up the numbers.  The ‘On Deck’ means that the team had last year’s conference champion up next, while the ‘Previous’ means how the team fared after playing the conference champion.  Here is a look at how each conference panned out, as well as all five combined at the end.

SEC Last 5 Years

The SEC has been able to avoid lookaheads and letdowns after playing last year’s conference champion.  They have gone 23-18 (56.1%) ATS with the conference champ on deck, and 20-20 (50.0%) ATS after playing the SEC champ.  This kind of makes sense because of all the conferences in the country, the SEC has more big games than any of them.  That means that one game is not necessarily bigger than the other for the majority of the teams in this conference.

I was also surprised to see that the OVER was 25-14-2 with the conference champ on deck.  So, if anything, it has led to poorer play defensively while the offenses have been hitting their stride heading into these games.  The OVER went 19-20 after playing the SEC champ.  The last five SEC champions have been Alabama (2013), LSU (2012), Auburn (2011), Alabama (2010) and Florida (2009), respectively.

Big Ten Last 5 Years

The Big Ten has seen a drastic difference in how teams have fared before and after playing the conference champ.  These teams don’t tend to look ahead at all, going 29-22 (56.86%) straight up and 30-21 (58.82%) ATS.  If anything, they have been hitting their stride heading into the big showdown with last year’s champ.  However, the hangover effect has been in play greatly in this conference.

Big Ten teams after playing the conference champ from last year have gone just 18-30 (37.50%) straight up and 20-27-1 (42.55%) ATS.  The OVER is 25-23-1 with the champ on deck, and the OVER is 28-19-1 after playing the champ.  In a conference known for defense, these total trends are certainly worth noting.  The last five Big Ten champions have been Wisconsin (2013), Wisconsin (2012), Wisconsin/Michigan State (2011), Ohio State (2010) and Ohio State (2009).

Big 12 Last 5 Years

This is the one conference of the five that has really been prone to the lookahead over the last five years.  In fact, Big 12 teams with the conference champion on deck have gone a woeful 20-31 (39.22%) ATS over this time frame.  They have come back the next week and played well, going a respectable 27-24 (52.94%) ATS after playing the Big 12 champ.

Defense appears to be optional with the Big 12 winner on deck as the OVER has gone a ridiculous 33-17-2.  The OVER is also 26-23-2 the week after playing the conference champ.  This shouldn’t come as too big of a surprise considering this is a conference known for offense and high-scoring games.  The last five Big 12 champions have been Kansas State/Oklahoma (2013), Oklahoma State (2012), Oklahoma (2011), Texas (2010) and Oklahoma (2009).

Pac-12 Last 5 Years

The difference in the Pac-12 between on deck and previous is enormous.  Teams with the conference champion on deck have gone 28-19 (59.57%) straight up and a healthy 26-19 (57.78%) ATS.  However, teams after playing the conference champ have gone an atrocious 18-26 (40.91%) straight up and 15-28-1 (34.88%) ATS.  The hangover factor has been more prevalent in this conference than any other.

That should come as no surprise considering Oregon (2012, 2011, 2010) has been the conference champ three of the last five years, and it’s hard for teams to bounce back after getting embarrassed by the Ducks.  The other two conference champions in Stanford (2013) and USC (2009) have been no pushovers, either.  The UNDER has gone 19-27 with the Pac-12 champ on deck, while the OVER has gone 24-19 for teams the week after playing the Pac-12 winner.

ACC Last 5 Years

The ACC was the one conference that didn’t really have an effect one way or the other.  It has only been slightly profitable to fade teams with the conference champion on deck or the first game after.  With the ACC champ on deck, teams have gone 19-21 (47.50%) ATS.  After playing the conference winner, these teams have gone 20-21 (48.78%) ATS.  Where I did find a drastic difference was in the totals.

Teams with the ACC champ on deck have combined to go 10-27-2 to the UNDER over the last five seasons.  The OVER has gone 23-18 the week after playing the conference winner.  The previous five ACC champions have been Florida State (2013), Clemson (2012), Virginia Tech (2011), Georgia Tech (2010) and Virginia Tech (2009).

All 5 Conferences Combined Last 5 Years

I believe the combined numbers are pretty telling.  Those that believe in the lookahead factor in college football need to rethink it.  If anything, teams look to sharpen up their game a week before playing last year’s conference champion.  With the conference champ on deck, these teams have gone a combined 136-95 (58.87%) straight up and 118-110-3 (51.75%) ATS.  While that ATS percentage is not good enough to back these teams blindly, it is good enough to know that you should rarely be searching for lookahead spots.

The real money maker over the past five years in these big conferences has been to fade teams after playing last year’s conference champion.  These teams actually have a losing record straight up at 105-119 (46.88%), while also going a woeful 102-120-2 (45.95%) ATS.  It’s clear the the hangover factor has been in full effect in these big conferences over the past five seasons.

Teams off a win against last year’s champ have gone 38-22 SU and 30-30 ATS.  However, teams off a loss against last year’s winner have gone just 65-98 SU and 74-88-1 ATS.  It’s clear that it is hard for these teams to recover following a loss, which makes sense because their chances of winning the conference and having a great season have gone out the window.

Taking a look at the totals, I find that the OVER has gone 112-108-7 for teams with the conference champion up next, so there’s really no advantage one way or the other there.  However, the OVER has gone a combined 120-99-3 for teams the week after playing the conference winner.  It’s pretty clear that teams lack focus in these hangover spots, and that affects the defenses more than the offenses.  Plus, the defense could easily be worn out after playing a conference champ because it’s likely that the conference champ has an explosive offense.