The no. 5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish will put their undefeated record on the line this week as they play host to the Pittsburgh Panthers. Kickoff is scheduled for 2:30 EST on Saturday, October 13, at Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend, Indiana. The game will be televised nationally on NBC.
Oddsmakers have made Notre Dame an early 20.5-point favorite at home. Click here to check out a full list of this week’s college football odds.
At 6-0, the Fighting Irish appear to have a clear path to an undefeated season and a spot in the College Football Playoff. Last week, Notre Dame took care of business in a tough road environment, beating Virginia Tech 45-23. With wins over Michigan and Stanford also on their resume, it’s tough to deny that the Irish are legitimate College Football Playoff contenders.
The rest of the schedule also sets up favorably for Notre Dame. The Irish only play two true road games in their final six games of the season. Also, none of the six team’s left on Notre Dame’s schedule are currently ranked. Of course, that means they may not be able to add any more quality wins to their resume. One loss could be enough to keep them out of the four-team playoff. In short, the Irish can’t afford a slip-up this week against Pitt.
The Panthers, on the other hand, snapped a two-game losing streak last week with an overtime victory against Syracuse. Pitt is just 3-3 on the season, although two of those losses came against Penn State and Central Florida, two teams that are currently ranked in the top-10.
Pat Narduzzi’s team has a lot of work to do in order to reach a bowl game this season. They need three wins in their final six games, which could be tough with four of those games coming on the road. In addition to Notre Dame, the Panthers still have tough games against Duke, Virginia Tech, and Miami left on their schedule. Riding the momentum of last week’s win and surprising the Irish this week would be huge for Pittsburgh’s bowl hopes.
As you might expect, Notre Dame has own this rivalry, which dates back to 1909. The Irish have won four of the last meetings between these teams, although their most recent meeting came in 2015, so few players on either roster played in that game. Also, the Panthers haven’t won in South Bend since 2008, so history isn’t exactly on their side this week.
The Panthers showed a lot of fight in a must-win game last week, and I expect them to bring their best effort to South Bend. However, on the field, this game looks like a mismatch. The Fighting Irish have won by comfortable margins against ranked teams the past two weeks, and I think they keep on rolling. I’ll swallow the points and lean toward Notre Dame to win by at least three touchdowns.
Ever since the Irish made a change at quarterback, they’ve been a completely different team. Ian Book is averaging better than 290 yards passing per game with eight touchdowns and one interception in the three games he’s started. He’s been the real deal, as he’s completing a high percentage of his passes and capable of creating big plays in the passing game.
Meanwhile, the Irish still have a productive rushing attack to keep their offense balanced. Dexter Williams has taken the reigns in the backfield, rushing for 339 yards and four touchdowns the past two weeks alone. Remember, those games were against Stanford and Virginia Tech, so it’s not as if he’s only doing damage against cupcakes.
I’m not sure I see Pitt being able to keep such a balanced Notre Dame offense under wraps. The Panthers have given up 38 points per game against FBS schools. Their best defensive outing came against Georgia Tech’s triple-option offense. In every other game other than their win against FCS opponent Albany, they’ve conceded at least 37 points. In short, the Irish have a chance to run wild this weekend.
At the same time, the Pittsburgh offense isn’t one that’s going to fare well in a shootout against Notre Dame. The Panthers have a strong rushing attack, winning last week on the backs of Qadree Ollison and Darrin Hall, who make for a dangerous backfield tandem. However, running the ball is the only way the Panthers have had success this season.
Sophomore quarterback Kenny Pickett hasn’t developed as expected. Outside of the Albany game, he has four touchdown passes and four interceptions. The Panthers are also 119th nationally in passing yards, averaging less than 150 yards per game. That’s not going to cut it against a Notre Dame defense that’s conceding less than 20 points per game. The Irish should be able to sell out against the run without worrying about getting hurt on the back end.
As much as I hate eating this many points in a rivalry game, Pitt simply doesn’t match up against Notre Dame. The Panthers lost by 45 and 31 points in games against Penn State and Central Florida, respectively. They simply don’t have the talent to keep up with a top-10 team. That makes me confident in picking Notre Dame to cover the spread.