The no. 15 Central Florida Golden Knights will try to remain undefeated as they hit the road to take on the Pittsburgh Panthers this weekend. Game time is scheduled for 3:30 EST on Saturday, September 21 at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh. The game will be televised on either ABC or ESPN2 depending on where you live.
Oddsmakers list the Golden Knights as 13.5-point favorites on the road with an over/under of 57.5 points. Click here to check out all of this week’s college football betting odds.
The Panthers have gotten off to yet another sluggish start under Pat Narduzzi, as they sit at 1-2. In their defense, Pitt’s losses have come against Virginia, who’s now a top-25 team, and a top-25 Penn State team on the road. The Panthers were actually one yard away from tying Penn State in the fourth quarter, only for Narduzzi to choose to kick a field goal that was no good, an odd decision in a 17-10 loss.
The Panthers are now facing the possibility of starting the year 1-3 if they can’t pull off the upset at home this week. The good news is that just about every ACC game is a winnable win. The bad news is that just about every ACC game is one that the Panthers could lose. For the sake of gaining confidence to take with them the rest of the season, Pittsburgh needs on a win on Saturday after a close but demoralizing loss to their in-state rivals last week.
Meanwhile, UCF hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2016. In fact, outside of last year’s Fiesta Bowl, the Knights haven’t lost a game since the 2016 Camping World Bowl. If you take away that Fiesta Bowl, the Knights have rattled off 28 wins in a row, including wins against Florida A&M, Florida Atlantic, and Stanford this season.
Last week’s win over Stanford was particularly impressive. UCF jumped ahead 21-0 midway through the first quarter and held a 38-7 lead at halftime before easing up in the second half and winning 45-27, which was still enough to cover the spread. One could argue that Saturday’s trip to Pittsburgh is Central Florida’s toughest remaining game, giving the Knights a clear path to another New Year’s Six bowl game if they can take care of business against the Panthers.
This will be the third all-time meeting between Pittsburgh and Central Florida. The first was a 52-7 win for the Panthers in 2006 while the second was a 45-14 win for the Knights last season. UCF more than doubled Pitt in total yards in that game, showcasing a drastic difference in talent between UCF and the ACC’s Panthers. In other words, it’ll take a huge turnaround from that game for Pitt to pull off the upset.
Based on the first three weeks of the season, not much has changed about Central Florida since they dismantled Pitt last season. On the other hand, Pitt is probably a little worse than last season. I give the Panthers credit for staying close with Penn State last week. But there’s bound to be an emotional letdown after a close loss to a rival. If UCF gets off to another fast start, this game could get ugly. I’ll lean toward the Knights to win by at least two touchdowns and cover the spread.
To be fair, UCF hasn’t played any good defensive teams this year. Even Stanford looks like a mess on that side of the ball, so Central Florida’s offensive numbers are a little inflated. Having said that, I’m still on the fence about how good Pitt is on the defensive side of the ball. They held Penn State to 17 points last week, but they also had problems in the season opener against Virginia. Plus, the Central Florida offense will give the Panthers a different type of scheme than what they saw a week ago.
Moreover, the Knights can throw a changeup at Pitt because they haven’t decided on a full-time quarterback. Freshman Dillon Gabriel has looked outstanding early in the year, tossing nine touchdowns and no interceptions in three games. The Knights are able to stretch the field vertically better than any team the Panthers have played this season.
But UCF could also give snaps to Notre Dame transfer Brandon Wimbush, who is less accomplished as a passer but can be a dynamic runner. It’ll be a nightmare for Narduzzi and the Panthers having to prepare for both quarterbacks, especially since they have such different skill sets.
On the other side of the ball, I have plenty of concerns about the Pitt offense. The Panthers are gaining just 2.8 yards per carry on the ground, a stark contrast from last season when the running game carried them most of the year. Meanwhile, the passing game with Kenny Pickett is somewhat limited. Pickett was a little better last week, throwing for 372 yards. But he needed 51 pass attempts to do it and the Panthers only scored 10 points.
All things considered, I think the UCF offense can force a shootout, and I don’t think the Pitt offense will be able to keep up. The Knights have a ton of big-play ability on offense, and I can’t say the same for the Panthers. Over the course of 60 minutes, that should be enough for UCF to win by at least two touchdowns and cover the spread.