Big Ten Football Betting Odds & Free Pick: Penn State vs Maryland

A pair of Big Ten rivals will both be trying to prove themselves when the no. 12 Penn State Nittany Lions face the Maryland Terrapins. The game kicks off at 8:00 EST on Friday, September 27 at Maryland Stadium in College Park. Fans can catch all of the action on FS1.

The betting lines have opened with Penn State as a 7-point favorite on the road. The over/under for the game is set at 58.5 points. Click here to check out all of this week’s college football odds.

Maryland vs Penn State Vegas Betting Line & Game Preview

Two weeks into the season, Maryland looked like they could be a major wild card in the Big Ten this season. They trounced Howard 79-0 in their season opener and then blew out a Syracuse team that won 10 games last year by a 63-20 scoreline. But all of that momentum came to a screeching halt the following week when the Terps lost to Temple 20-17, making their time in the top-25 brief.

Maryland has had two weeks to think about that loss and get ready to face Penn State. If the Terrapins can get back on track, they’ll have a chance to make a statement and get the Big Ten talking about them again. However, with a loss, Maryland could once again find themselves struggling just to get to a bowl game given the brutal schedule that awaits them in the Big Ten East division. In other words, this could be the defining game on Maryland’s schedule.

Meanwhile, Penn State might be one of the least impressive 3-0 teams in the country. The Nittany Lions trailed MAC opponent Buffalo at halftime a few weeks ago and were actually out-gained in the game. Two weeks ago, Penn State barely escaped with a win against in-state rival Pitt, topping the Panthers 17-10 at home despite entering the game as 17-point favorites.

Much like Maryland, the Nittany Lions have a lot to prove. On the bright side, Penn State could have an opportunity to rise in the Big Ten East hierarchy with both Michigan and Michigan State stumbling in recent weeks. But Penn State’s schedule is no joke and they have to take things one game at a time, starting with Friday’s trip to Maryland.

These two schools actually have a rivalry that predates Maryland joining the Big Ten. They first met in 1917 and have met intermittently since then, as the two schools are less than 200 miles apart. Maryland won their first meeting with Penn State as Big Ten foes in 2014. However, that’s one of only two wins the Terrapins have over the Nittany Lions in 42 all-time meetings.

Free NCAA Football Pick Against the Spread: Maryland +7

This pick comes down to whether you think Maryland just had a bad day against Temple or you think Penn State had a bad day against Pitt. Of course, it could end up being both. But as far as this game is concerned, I’m going to lean toward the Terrapins. At home, I think they’ll get the offense going again and get enough from their defense to make this a game. Based on what I’ve seen from Penn State, they’ll be lucky to win this game by any margin, so I’ll take Maryland and the points.

The one thing I know about Maryland, despite the loss to Temple, is that they can run the ball. Anthony McFarland Jr. is a big back who’s difficult to tackle and can wear down a defense over the course of a game. The Terps also have a nice change-of-pace back in Javon Leake, who’s averaging over 10 yards per carry. On top of that, quarterback Josh Jackson is always a threat to use his legs. Remember, Maryland was an outstanding rushing team last year, and despite a coaching change, that remains true in 2019.

To be fair, the Penn State defense completely shut down Pitt’s rushing attack a couple of weeks ago. Also, Jackson has struggled as a passer this year, including a 15 for 38 effort against Temple. But Pitt’s running game isn’t nearly as potent as the Maryland rushing attack. The Terrapins should be able to establish their rushing attack and take a little pressure off Jackson and the passing game.

At the same time, I haven’t been all that enamored with Penn State’s offense this season. They were ice cold in the first half against Buffalo before they got it going and never found much of a rhythm against Pitt either. The running game has been fine, but sophomore quarterback Sean Clifford is still finding his way. He hasn’t thrown any interceptions, which is a positive. But he had a bad day against Pitt and now has to face a hostile crowd on the road for the first time as a starter. 

Thus far, the Maryland defense has been solid and held up well against the run. Given Clifford’s struggles in his last game, I think the Terrapins can hold Penn State to a reasonable point total. That should allow Maryland to lean on the running game without asking too much of Jackson. To me, that translates to a low-scoring game that gives Maryland a chance in the fourth quarter, so I’ll lean toward the Terrapins to beat the 7-point spread.

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