The Penn State Nittany Lions will get their 2018 season underway with a home game against the Appalachian State Mountaineers. Kickoff will be at 3:30 EST on Saturday, September 1, at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania. Fans can catch the game on the Big Ten Network. Penn State is listed as a 23-point favorite to beat App State. Find more game previews and see odds on more games for week 1 by heading here.
The Nittany Lions are coming off back-to-back 11-win seasons under James Franklin. Penn State has also finished the last two seasons ranked in the top-10, as Franklin has all but restored Penn State to its glory days. Of course, the next step for the Nittany Lions is to reach the College Football Playoff, which is no doubt Penn State’s goal heading into the season.
The Mountaineers have had their own run of success recently under head coach Scott Satterfield. Appalachian State has won at least a share of the Sun Belt championship the past two seasons. They’ve also gone to a bowl game in each of the last three years, going 30-9 over that span. Clearly, Satterfield has turned the Mountaineers into a well-oiled machine that’s set up for long-term success in the Sun Belt.
This is the first-ever meeting between Penn State and Appalachian State, as the Mountaineers are relatively new to the FBS level. Many people still remember App State’s upset over Michigan in 2007. The Mountaineers haven’t pulled off an upset like that recently, but they’ve stood tall against some power-conference opponents in recent years. They took Tennessee to overtime in 2016 and lost by only a point against Wake Forest last season, so the Nittany Lions shouldn’t expect this to be a walk in the park.
I’m not going to predict an upset in this game, but I think it’ll be closer than most expect. Penn State has just enough areas of uncertainty heading into the season to make me think that a team like Appalachian State can hang around and keep things close. I’m not ready to swallow this many points for Penn State, so I’ll lean toward the Mountaineers.
The Nittany Lions were incredible defensively last year, at least against teams not named Ohio State, Michigan State, or (oddly enough) Nebraska. However, that unit was hit hard by graduation. For starters, the Lions have to replace all four starters in their secondary. They also appear to be a little thin at linebacker and lost some impact players along the defensive line. Long-term, they should be fine with the way Franklin has recruited. However, the Penn State defense may need some time to come together, so they may not be at their best in the season opener.
That could leave the door open for Appalachian State to have some success offensively. The Mountaineers have questions of their own, most notably at quarterback, as Zac Thomas will step in for four-year starter Taylor Lamb. However, App State is a run-first team, so they’ll rely on their ground game first and foremost. Even with a couple key guys to replace on the offensive line, the Mountaineers have a chance to move the ball on the ground against a somewhat depleted front-7. Running back Jalin Moore has over 2,100 rushing yards in his career and was the Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year in 2016, so he’ll provide a test for the Penn State defense.
The App State passing game is also capable of moving the ball. The Mountaineers will add Kansas State transfers Dominique Heath and Corey Sutton, improving an already reliable set of receivers. As long as Appalachian State can have some success running the ball to keep the Penn State pass rush away from Thomas, the young quarterback should be just fine.
The Penn State offense also lost some key guys after last season, most notably Saquon Barkley and DaeSean Hamilton. Franklin has talked up the running backs that remain, but none of them have Barkley’s talent or will require as much attention from opposing defenses. Of course, the Nittany Lions still have senior quarterback Trace McSorley to lead the way. He was incredibly accurate last year, completing 66% of his passes. But his supporting cast is not quite as impressive as it’s been the past couple of seasons. There will be a lot more on his plate this year.
The Appalachian State defense figures to be a solid unit after finishing strong in 2017. They lack high-end talent compared to a Big Ten team. But there’s enough to make the Nittany Lions work hard to move the ball. A strong Appalachian State secondary should help the Mountaineers avoid giving up the big play, especially since Penn State doesn’t have many established deep threats.
Barring an off day from the Nittany Lions, I don’t see Appalachian State springing the upset. But the Mountaineers have enough to keep the game competitive. With both teams likely to run the ball more than throw it, the clock will run and give Penn State less time to pull away. The Nittany Lions may end up winning comfortably, but they won’t beat the 23.5-point spread.