The Oregon Ducks begin a new era with a new head coach when they host the Bowling Green Falcons. The game will kick off at 8:00 EST on Saturday, September 1 at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon. Fans can watch the game on the Pac-12 Network. Oddsmakers list Oregon as 33-point favorites.
After just one season with Willie Taggart at the helm, the Ducks have another new head coach in Mario Cristobal after Taggart left for Florida State. Fortunately for Oregon, Cristobal was on the staff last season, as was defensive coordinator Jim Leavitt, who also decided to stay in Eugene. That should give the Ducks some continuity after a somewhat disappointing 7-6 campaign in 2017. Oregon was just 4-5 in Pac-12 play last season, as they appeared miles behind the top of the league, a gap they hope to close in 2018.
Bowling Green, meanwhile, is trying to rebound from a 2-10 season in 2017. Mike Jinks is entering his third season with the Falcons with a record of 6-18. Obviously, progress needs to be made in 2018 or else Jinks could find himself on the hot seat at season’s end. Jinks has recruited well at Bowling Green, but he may be reliant on those young players to step up if the Falcons are going to show improvement and increase their win total this season.
This will be the first-ever meeting between Oregon and Bowling Green. As recently as 2015, the Falcons knocked off a power conference team when they beat Maryland. But that was with a different coaching staff and it was before Bowling Green started to spiral to the bottom of the MAC the past two years.
I hate swallowing this many points, but this is a game that calls for it. Oregon has a potential Heisman candidate at quarterback in Justin Herbert, so this is an offense that has a chance to get rolling, especially against a MAC defense that allowed over 500 yards per game last season. If Bowling Green reaches their full potential this season, they’re still just an average MAC team. I can see them being helpless to stop the Ducks if they get off to a fast start, so I’ll lean toward Oregon being able to cover.
The key for Oregon, obviously, is Herbert at quarterback. He’s 6’6’’ and can flat out sling it. He’ll run a little bit if he has to, but for the most part, he’ll stand in the pocket and look to pick apart defenses with his arm. The Ducks were 1-4 when he missed five games due to injury last year, meaning they were 6-2 when he played. Those results were not a coincidence. When he was healthy, Herbert completed 68% of his passes while throwing 15 touchdowns and just five interceptions.
To be fair, some of the skill players around Herbert have something to prove. The Ducks will look to replace running back Royce Freeman with Tony Brooks-James, who moonlights on the Oregon track team and will be a threat to take it to the house every time he touches the ball. Oregon will also be hoping that Wake Forest grad transfer Tabari Hines and some of their younger receivers can emerge as difference makers in the passing game. However, if nothing else, the Ducks should have a veteran offensive line to help get their running game going and give Herbert plenty of time in the pocket. Against a lower-level team like Bowling Green, a strong offensive line should be enough to keep the ball moving.
There may be a little bit of hope for the Bowling Green defense. They return most of their top players from a year ago and should have capable playmakers at all three levels. That being said, the Falcons still allowed over 500 yards of offense per game last season, so even with modest improvement, this defense is nothing special. If MAC offenses were able to rip them apart at the seams last year, the Ducks should have no problem doing so in the opener.
That means it’s all up to the Bowling Green offense if the Falcons hope to keep this game close and at least beat the spread. Sophomore Jarret Doegs retains the starting quarterback job after finishing the 2017 season in that spot. He threw 11 touchdown passes to just two interceptions in the final four games of the season and has a veteran-laden group of receivers at his disposal this season.
However, he didn’t face a defense during that stretch anywhere near as good the Oregon defense. The Ducks, to be fair, are a little young on that side of the ball. But they have some guys who can get after the passer and cause problems for Doegs. Also, with Leavitt staying on board as defensive coordinator, the defense should be fully bought in on what he’s preaching, which should help.
Ultimately, there’s not enough to convince me that Bowling Green can do much against Oregon on either side of the ball. I’m willing to bet that the Ducks will start fast on offense, and once that happens, there’s no way the Falcons will be able to stop them. I’ll take my chances on Oregon winning this game by at least five touchdowns and covering the spread.