It’s about time that the Group-of-5 put its foot down.
I was among those who was impressed enough with Central Florida to tout the Knights for a potential College Football Playoff spot in 2018, and it’s not because the American Athletic Conference is in any way the equal of the SEC or ACC or Big Ten.
The AAC is not a Power-5 conference. But certain schools from the AAC are developing Power-5 level talent, and UCF and Memphis are prime examples. Darrell Henderson was injured and didn’t play against Missouri in 2018, allowing Mizzou to win convincingly and allowing mainstream pundits to write the G5 conference off.
Memphis also had to face the SEC after losing a heartbreaker to UCF in the rain in mid-season. That type of scenario cuts down on a team’s ability to punch upward. There won’t be any such issue in 2019 as the Tigers begin the season hosting Ole Miss, in August, when every school is still 0-0.
Did I say hosting? Yes, this season it would appear – though it could be some fluke caused by logistics – that the mid-majors are finally standing up for themselves in the OOC scheduling department. Hawaii hosted the Pac-12’s Arizona Wildcats on Saturday night, Wyoming hosts Missouri this Saturday, and Memphis is welcoming Mississippi at the Liberty Bowl.
Even with the raucous home crowd in the offing, however, gamblers are unsure of the Tigers, shrinking the home team’s Vegas spread to less than a touchdown. At least Memphis is the favorite…against an SEC program.
Who: Ole Miss Rebels at Memphis Tigers
When: Saturday, August 31st, 12 PM EST
Where: Liberty Bowl, Memphis, TN
Lines: Ole Miss (+5.5) at MEM (-5.5) / O/U Total: (68)
Head coach Matt Luke begins his 3rd season in charge of the Ole Miss Rebels with a record of 11-13 and not much more of a seasoned unit than he began with.
QB Matt Corral hopes to play a huge role in the offense, but senior RB Scottie Phillips was sensational in his 1st season with Ole Miss, rushing for 928 yards and 12 touchdowns. Phillips is more likely to be put in charge of the egg in a goal-line situation.
Mississippi’s defense has been putrid, and it won’t be any fun to take on California or Memphis in non-conference games in ’19. So why is the betting public largely high on the Rebs in Week 1?
Luke is at least trying something new on defense, going to a 3-4 formation for a planned majority of snaps. Red Cup Rebellion posits that it could breathe life into a now-DE-NG-DE defensive line:
The Rebels will have a new look up front in regard to a 3-4 front seven compared to a four man defensive line in the past few seasons. Typically, this means an enormous and also very strong nose guard or defensive tackle needs to clog up space in the middle. Luckily, Ole Miss has Benito Jones coming back for another season. Jones (6’1, 329-pounds) started every game last season racking up 34 tackles with nine tackles for loss and three sacks. He has been the model of consistency and work ethic starting in 26 games and playing in every game in the last three years. Needless to say, there’s not much he hasn’t seen or experienced, and he’ll anchor the defensive line and silently lead the entire defensive side of the ball.
Flanking Jones with most likely be some starting combination of Tariqious Tisdale, Austrian Robinson, and Ryder Anderson at defensive end.
In the short term, more LBs on the roster will help Ole Miss on special teams.
For the Tigers, concern surrounds a backfield that has been hollowed-out beyond merely losing Henderson to the NFL Draft. Tony Pollard is gone too, and Patrick Taylor Jr. may not be as effective as some believe he’ll be in 2019-20, given that he’ll face more uphill carries as a starter. Not that I think Memphis “loses” the rushing yards from last year’s explosive backfield. I never repeat that narrative. Teams don’t “lose yards” when runners graduate, they were taking carries that underclassmen could have had. The only question is whether things go down or up.
Brady White is back and will be throwing to Damonte Coxie, but there’s no guarantee a new OL will block as well as the last did. Henderson and Pollard made the ’18 unit look good at times.
The front-7 will be solid, and the play of SEC transfer John Broussard will be key in an otherwise potentially-thin defensive backfield.
The SEC isn’t a super-deep conference no matter what any pundit says – the league’s claim to fame it still its powerhouse top tier. Memphis, however, may be overrated coming into the season. The pick Memphis-ATS may have a better-than-50% chance to win but it’s purely a “system” pick of fading the public.
Better to fade the media. The offenses get all the hype, but I’m not sure Memphis will be nearly as explosive in ’19, relying on a stout defense instead. I also can’t see Ole Miss going anywhere fast for most of 4 quarters.
Take the Under (68) for a winner in Tennessee.