Ole Miss at Kentucky – SEC Football Odds, Point Spread and Pick

Let’s spill the beans, shall we? A “lock” is a word that professional touts made up to make themselves look good. “Lock” belongs in the same category as 99 cents, or FREE! or any other ad slogan of the past 100 years. I’ve covered prep football for a living, where half of the games are supposed to be foregone conclusions. But if a star QB breaks his leg in the 1st quarter, all said conclusions are forgotten. There is no such thing as a lock.

But there’s a smart way to play the point spread. It involves forgetting the notion of a sure thing, which often revolves around one obsessive idea or hunch about how a game will go. There are a dozen things that might drastically affect how a football score winds up, at the last minute and completely unpredictable. But the % chances of each scenario taking place are different, and that’s where you can win.

Ole Miss has given inclinations of being a more-legit Power-5 team than Kentucky in ’17. But the Wildcats have twice as many wins as the Rebels, thanks in large-part to a softer schedule. Mississippi is not a lock to beat Kentucky, especially on the road.

But by rating W-L record over common sense, book-makers may be giving the favorite’s keys to the wrong driver.

Who: Ole Miss Rebels at Kentucky Wildcats

When: Saturday, November 4th, 4 PM EST

Where: Kroger Field, Lexington, KY

Lines: Ole Miss (+4) at UK (-4) / O/U Total: (63)

Odds and Prediction for UK vs Ole Miss

The teams are evenly-matched. Kentucky has a read-option offense with a QB who is a mediocre runner, and not much threat to pass downfield. Stephen Johnson has only 9 touchdown passes and has rushed for less than 300 yards on the year.

Ole Miss, meanwhile, has a hard-hitting defense that can’t come through with big stops in the 2nd half. They were out-matched in the late going by Auburn and California.

Johnson threw 2 interceptions in a 45-7 loss to Mississippi State. Ole Miss has the much-more prolific QB in Shea Patterson, who has thrown for almost 2300 yards and 17 touchdowns.

Best Bet for Kentucky at Mississippi

Play the percentages. If you played this game 10 times on a neutral field, the better QB (Patterson) would win 6 or 7 of the games. That makes Saturday at least a coin-flip scenario SU as Kentucky’s pass rush is not a killer.

If Ole Miss has a 50% shot to win on the money line, even a 4-point spread makes them a worthwhile underdog ATS. Take the Rebels and the points.

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