College Football Betting Preview & Free ATS Pick: Oklahoma State vs Texas

The Oklahoma State Cowboys will put their undefeated record on the line this weekend as they begin Big 12 play against the no. 12 Texas Longhorns. Game time is at 7:30 EST on Saturday, September 21 at Royal Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin. The game can be seen nationally on ABC.

According to the Week 4 college football odds, the Longhorns are 5-point favorites at home. The over/under for the game is set at 71 points. 

Texas vs Oklahoma State Vegas Odds & Game Preview

Texas already has a loss on its record this year, coming up short in that epic game against LSU. But the Longhorns were quick to bounce back from that loss, taking care of Rice 48-13 last week. The Longhorns led 31-0 at halftime before taking their foot off the gas. Texas won by a similar margin over Louisiana Tech in their season opener, so they’ve taken care of business against lesser opponents.

The problem the Longhorns face is that can’t afford to lose a second game if they want to stay alive in the College Football Playoff discussion. They also don’t want to start out the conference season with a loss. Texas took a big step forward last year by reaching the Big 12 Championship Game, so their expectation is to get back there again this season.

The Cowboys, meanwhile, take a perfect 3-0 record into Austin. Oklahoma State has wins over Oregon State, McNeese State, and Tulsa this year, scoring at least 40 points in each game. Of course, none of those teams are considered quality opponents. Even Oregon State is among the worst teams in the Pac-12. That makes it difficult to know how good the Cowboys really are based on their first three games.

The good news is that we’ll soon find out how good Oklahoma State might be this year. Heading to Texas for their Big 12 opener will be a good test for the Cowboys. Of course, OSU only needs three more wins to secure a 14th straight bowl appearance. On the other hand, a win over Texas on Saturday would allow the Cowboys to set their sights even higher than an ordinary bowl game.

While Texas has dominated the all-time series between these two programs, Oklahoma State has a four-game winning streak over the Longhorns. For what it’s worth, three of those four wins have only come by a field goal, so the games have been close in recent years. Nevertheless, Texas is still in search of their first win over Oklahoma State since 2014 and their first home win against the Cowboys since 2008, a streak of five straight home losses against OSU.

Free NCAAF Betting Prediction: Oklahoma State +5

If Texas is going to snap their losing streak to Oklahoma State, they’re going to have to survive a close game. I’d almost be tempted to take the over in this game because both sides are more than capable of putting 30-plus points on the board. However, I also think we’re destined to see another close game, which means Texas is going to have trouble covering the 5-point spread.

Once again, the Oklahoma State offense is poised to be one of the best in the country. As noted, the competition level they’ve faced in their first three games has been a little questionable. Still, it’s impossible to ignore the fact that the Cowboys are averaging 50 points per game. It all starts with freshman quarterback Spencer Sanders, who has excelled early in the season as a passer. He also looks like the best running quarterback OSU has had in a long time, giving the OSU offense a dimension they don’t usually have.

In Tylan Wallace, the Cowboys have an elite receiver for their young quarterback. Plus, sophomore running back Chuba Hubbard is already halfway to 1,000 yards. He’s been an ideal replacement for Justice Hill. In both games against FBS opponents, Hubbard has rushed for over 200 yards and three touchdowns. On the season, he’s averaging close to eight yards per carry. I think he’ll be able to run against just about anyone, especially since teams also have to respect Sanders as a runner.

However, the biggest reason I like Oklahoma State to beat the spread is the Texas secondary. We saw in the LSU game that the Longhorns are vulnerable on the back end. Obviously, LSU quarterback Joe Burrow deserves a lot of the credit. But with the way Sanders has looked throwing the ball early in the year, I can foresee the Texas secondary having a rough outing. Given Oklahoma State’s potent rushing attack, the Texas secondary may not get much support from the rest of the defense.

Of course, Texas quarterback Sam Ehlinger proved in the LSU game that he can sling it around the field as well as any quarterback in the country. I have no doubt that he can do plenty of damage against an Oklahoma State defense that hasn’t exactly been stout early in the season. However, porous defenses are nothing new to Oklahoma State. They haven’t stopped the Cowboys from winning four in a row against Texas, so why would that suddely change this year. In the end, I think the OSU offense will be able to overcome a shaky defense and do enough to at least beat the spread.

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