A quick glance at the betting board seems to remind us that Oklahoma State HC Mike Gundy knows how to pick out a cupcake. South Alabama is not considered as dangerous an FBS opponent as even FCS teams such as Eastern Washington or Wofford. Instead, the Jaguars are one of those teams we flip past on ESPN2, playing another dreary nickel & dime Tuesday night contest against a small conference foe. The Jags lost last week while OSU romped.
But wait, there’s one oddity. The game is at South Alabama. A host-underdog is uncommon in a thrash-for-cash.
Has the location affected the odds? Let’s take a look.
Who: #11 Oklahoma State Cowboys at South Alabama Jaguars
When: Friday, September 8th, 8 PM EST
Where: Ladd Peebles Stadium, Mobile, AL
Lines: Oklahoma State (-28) at South Alabama (+28) / O/U Total: (66.5)
The line that jumps out is the total points. Oklahoma State scored 59 points in its debut against Tulsa, and has a characteristically modest defensive unit. It is hard to imagine an also-ran from the Sun Belt holding the Cowboys to under 50 points, and it’s always hard to imagine OSU’s defense holding an opponent to less than 2 touchdowns.
Is there anything that would prevent this contest from being a track meet?
The Jaguars gave up 429 passing yards to Ole Miss quarterback Shea Patterson threw last weekend, losing to the Rebels 47-27. Maybe the performance of senior safety Jeremy Reaves caused bookies to open a conservative O/U (originally around 64 points before the action moved it up). Reaves had a sack and 2 tackles for loss along with several passes defensed against Mississippi.
But the Cowboys’ offensive line looked just fine against Tulsa, a bigger and burlier unit than the one in Mobile. Mason Rudolph should have plenty of time in the pocket to pick the Jaguars apart on Friday night.
Take the over in this one. Gundy will probably never recruit or coach an outstanding defense. Against Tulsa, the Cowboys gave up 17 points in the 2nd quarter. A lack of real aggression or imposing pursuit at the LOS means that even runners like diminutive Tre Minter of the Jaguars can scrap for positive yards and keep drives alive.
But the more points a cupcake scores, the more the favorite will run it up – see Missouri vs Missouri State last week. Expect a final score like OSU 57, South Alabama 20…and clean up handily on the O/U.