I’ll make a confession – I often prefer picking potentially-lopsided games ATS compared to the truly tight tilts of college football.
In a (-1) or (-2) handicapped contest, you’re gauging potential field-goal kicking scenarios or last-minute tactics to try to determine the best % prediction, but any number of factors could turn the scrum into a 1 or 2-TD victory for either side.
With an expected contender vs cupcake match-up with a big fat Vegas point spread, the choice is simpler. Will it be some kind of a close game or not? If it’s a close game, the underdog will almost always cover. If it’s a blow-out, the favorite is likely to cover. Easy enough.
The latter angle is key as the Oklahoma State Cowboys prepare to begin the 2019-20 (or hopefully 2019 and 2020) campaign at Reser Stadium in the Pacific Northwest, taking on the Oregon State Beavers in a Big 12 vs Pac-12 scrum on Friday night.
Gamblers like the Beavers as a long-shot underdog, driving a 6-to-1 moneyline set by CFB odds-makers to (+450) with weeks of preseason betting action. However, the point spread hasn’t moved much.
The public understands that Mike Gundy likes to throw 60-minute parties against out-of-conference patsies in late summer, involving as many OSU underclassmen as possible in a rack-em-up touchdown-fest. That’s why Oregon State is on the Cowboys’ schedule.
The “other OSU” may put up a fight – especially at home where the orange-clad students and alumni are loud and proud. But if the hosts are losing substantially at halftime, the visiting “NASCAR”-style offense will give no quarter.
That factor – the trend of Oklahoma State blowing-out cupcakes as a habit – is keeping the spread above 2 TDs.
Who: Oklahoma State Cowboys at Oregon State Beavers
When: Friday, August 30th, 10:30 PM EST
Where: Reser Stadium, Corvallis, OR
Lines: Ok St (-15.5) at Oregon St (+15.5) / O/U Total: (74)
I’ve given Mike Gundy – who is a MAN and can take it – lots of grief over the years for having a 1-sided program, or maybe a 2/3 sided program in Stillwater. Fabulous offense, terrific speed and skill-sets on special teams…and a wet noodle of a defense that never lives up to promise or potential.
But I’ve got to feel sympathy for Gundy this offseason, because woe comes to Oklahoma State whenever there’s no big-time QB to take snaps and score the necessary 40+ points-per-game to make the HC’s annual winning plan a reality.
Redshirt freshman Spencer Sanders and Hawaii transfer Dru Brown have been staging a showdown for the starting QB’s job in Week 1, which is fine, but the engine needs to get cranked early in the season or else the Cowboys are in trouble. There is no still word on a Cowboy starter merely a week prior to the opening game in Oregon.
Meanwhile, if the defense gets any worse in 2019 it’ll average allowing 500 yards per game.
The conundrum on offense is a similar one in Corvallis. Senior passer Jake Luton has overcome numerous injuries and has been competing with Nebraska transfer Tristan Gebbia for the starting nod.
Luton has been named a captain so that’s probably a good sign for the upperclassman, but the presumptive “understudy” has been shining in practices too:
Gebbia began to find a rhythm about halfway through the scrimmage. Running mostly with the second team, the Nebraska transfer led a couple of touchdown drives. The first of those featured a string of completions to Job Dockery, BJ Baylor, and Aaron Short, ending with a 25-yard score through the air. Near the end of the night, Gebbia put his running ability on display with a scramble to the end zone, featuring multiple highly athletic moves.
Neither QB is expected to find a sterling supporting cast around him on a team that posted only 2 wins in 2018.
At least there will be someone to hand off to, and some big bodies in front of him. 5’10” sophomore running back Jermar Jefferson had a remarkable freshman season, notching 1,380 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns. If only the pass blocking and route running could have given the offense a chance to hurt defenses downfield.
There is nowhere to go but up for a Beaver defense that finished 2nd-to-last in the FBS last season, allowing an average of 45.7 points.
3+ wins isn’t a whole lot to ask for. But the OSU defense couldn’t be opening against a tougher pair of attacks, taking on Oklahoma State and Hawaii in Weeks 1 and 2.
The Cowboys are probably a safe bet ATS simply because the team never stops churning-out touchdown drives in garbage time. By the midway point of the 4th quarter, it will be a minor surprise not to see the visitors leading by at least 3 touchdowns and headed for more.
But the rising O/U may be an even better opportunity to fade the public. Defenses may lack perfect conditioning in “Week Zero” games, but are often able to confuse QBs with fancy new blitzes in Week 1. Given that we don’t even know who either quarterback is going to be yet, we can’t count on them to combine for 74 points.
Take the Under (74) for Friday night.