A pair of top-25 teams will collide this weekend as the no. 24 Oklahoma State Cowboys host the no. 17 Boise State Broncos. Game time will be 3:30 EST on Saturday, September 15, at Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater, Oklahoma. Fans can watch the game on ESPN.
According to this week’s college football odds, Oklahoma State is a 3-point favorite at home. However, that line is down slightly after the Cowboys opened as 3.5-point favorites.
The Cowboys have had two convincing wins to begin the season that have helped elevate them into the top-25. Of course, it’s hard not to question the level of competition they have faced. Oklahoma State opened the season by racking up over 700 yards of offense in a 58-17 win over FCS opponent Missouri State. It was a similar story last week, as the Cowboys thumped South Alabama 55-13. Despite the two blowout wins, head coach Mike Gundy remains unimpressed with the play of new quarterback Taylor Cornelius, who is trying to fill the shoes of Mason Rudolph this season.
As for Boise State, the Broncos have also had a rather easy time early in the season. They blew out Troy 56-20 on the road to open the season and did the same thing to Connecticut last week at home, beating the Huskies 62-7. Quarterback Brett Rypien and the Broncos have picked up where they left off last season when they won nine of their last 10 games, including a bowl win over Oregon.
This is actually the first ever meeting between Oklahoma State and Boise State. While it’s a non-conference game, both teams will be eager to win. If Boise State can knock off the Cowboys, running the table and getting to a New Year’s bowl becomes a real possibility for them.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma State is looking to make a statement after being unranked to start the season. Also, with a backloaded schedule, the Cowboys have a chance to stay undefeated deep into October or November if they can hold serve at home this week. A win over Boise State could help them leap further up the polls and perhaps into the College Football Playoff discussion.
You might as well as throw out almost anything you think you’ve learned about these teams the first two weeks of the season. Neither team has been challenged, although you can argue Boise State opening the season at Sun Belt favorite Troy isn’t necessarily a cupcake. In any event, I had some serious questions about Oklahoma State heading into the season, and those haven’t been answered in their early blowouts. That makes me lean toward Boise State, who was a lot more solidified on both sides of the ball heading into the year.
Obviously, the biggest question for the Cowboys is whether Cornelius can deliver against a quality team. Forget about the early-season results, the Boise State defense has returned nine starters from last year’s team. During their last 10 games in 2017, only three teams scored 20 or more points against the Broncos. I would expect the OSU offense will be able to crack at least 20 points on Saturday, but perhaps not much more than that given Boise’s talent on that side of the ball.
Gundy is quoted as describing Cornelius as “average at best” after last week’s game. Part of what’s concerning is that he’s thrown three interceptions and been sacked four times in two games against subpar opponents. Cornelius isn’t solely to blame for those issues, but that doesn’t make them any less of a problem as the Cowboys prepare to face a team that has collected six sacks and five turnovers in their first two games of the season, albeit against weaker teams.
The key for Oklahoma State could be to lean on Justice Hill and the running game. Hill has only carried the ball 19 times this year because both games quickly turned into blowouts. But he’s one of the best backs in the Big 12. He could be OSU’s best chance to move the ball consistently against the Boise State defense.
On the other side of the ball, the typically porous Oklahoma State defense has to contain one of the most underrated quarterbacks in college football. With over 600 yards passing in his first two games this season, Rypien has surpassed 10,000 yards in his career. If the Cowboys can’t find a way to put some pressure on him and throw him off his game, he could be tough to stop. The Broncos have also run the ball effectively in their first two games, so they are far from a one-trick pony offensively.
More than likely, this game will turn into a shootout. With that in mind, I feel a little more comfortable going with the team that has the more experienced quarterback, even on the road. It also helps that Boise State is a little more proven on defense. That gives me confidence that the Broncos will score a road win, so beating the spread shouldn’t be a problem.