No, this isn’t a Bye Week for the Sooners, but it might as well be. The #5 ranked Oklahoma Sooners head out on the road to take on the worst team in the Big 12, and possibly the nation over the last few years, the Kansas Jayhawks. Oklahoma’s coaches and players are saying all the right things and declaring their focus on this game. But, we all know that this game is nothing more than a glorified scrimmage and a perfect opportunity to rest key players after the first half. Kickoff inside Memorial Stadium-Lawrence is at 3:30 PM ET.
The Sooners have won 12 straight games against the Jayhawks. And, they have usually won these games by 3 scores or more. In fact, over the last 10 head-to-head games, Oklahoma has outscored Kansas 44.4 ppg to 20.4 ppg. The Sooners have won the last 4 out of 5 games by 37 points or more, and they won the last 2 games by 53 and 55 points.
Kansas (1-9, 0-7 Big 12) has lost 27 out of their last 28 games and are 1-24 under their 3rd year coach. They had a moral victory last weekend as they only lost by 15 points to Texas, which is their 3rd lowest margin of defeat on the season. Kansas has been outscored 319-109 in Big 12 action and they’re going up against the best offense in the nation this weekend.
Oklahoma (9-1, 6-1 Big 12) is coming off 2 impressive wins in a row: Oklahoma State and TCU. They basically eliminated both teams from the CFP, while improving their own chances. In fact, if the Sooners beat WVU next weekend, then they will be in the Big 12 title game and have an excellent shot at the CFP.
The Over/Under opened at 71 points and has come down to 70.5 total points. The spread opened at 34.5 points, but has moved around between 36 to 37 points. Depending on the book, you can get them as low as 36. Since we’re taking the Sooners to cover, get the spread as low as possible.
There’s absolutely no doubt in my mind that Oklahoma will win this game. In fact, I don’t even think that diehard and delusional Kansas fans can think they will win this game. This isn’t basketball!
The one question that many bettors are asking is if Oklahoma can win by 36+ points. I believe they can and here’s why:
As mentioned, Kansas has been getting destroyed in Big 12 play. The closest margin of defeat in conference games was 10 points to in-state rival Kansas State. They even lost badly to a winless Baylor team 38-9.
Oklahoma defeated TCU last weekend 38-20. That same TCU team defeated Kansas 43-0. That’s just one example in a long line of games between common opponents. Without going over each one, trust me when I say that the difference in level of talent between these two teams couldn’t be greater.
Kansas allows 42.4 ppg on the season and 449 total yards per game. In Big 12 play, they give up 45.5 ppg and that’s just about what Oklahoma scores per game (44.3). 7 out of the last 10 games between these two teams, Oklahoma has scored more than 40 points. In half of those 10 games, Kansas has scored 7 points or less.
This game will be a massacre. Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield has the best completion percentage in the country at 71.2 percent. He’s also thrown 3,559 yards, 31 touchdowns and just 5 interceptions on the season. Mayfield averages 355.9 passing yards per game and Kansas gives up 275 passing yards per game. Mayfield could throw for over 500 yards this game if he played the entire contest. But, I don’t see him playing past the halfway point of the 3rd quarter. So, I think he finishes with 300+ passing yards and 4 touchdowns as he leads the Sooners to a route of the Jayhawks 58-10.
Oklahoma is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games, 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against Kansas, 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games against Kansas, and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games during November. Kansas is 3-7 ATAS in their last 10 games and 2-4 ATS in their last 6 home games.