I loooooove me some big fat, wide, exaggerated point spreads.
Sure, just because a college football game looks like a mismatch and is pegged by Vegas as a probable 30-point or 40-point blow-out doesn’t mean you should bet on it. But consider the entertainment value as a start. If you pick a heavy, laughable underdog ATS, you are simply hoping for any kind of good game. If the game is reasonably close, you win. Even 5 and 10-yard gains by the long-shot are something to celebrate. Keep the sticks moving, boys! Just 15:00 to go and we’re still spotted 14 points!
Or a bet on the massive favorite can be super-fun too. No biting the fingernails, waiting to see if your pick can eke out a yard on 4th and short against a powerhouse. Nothing but fast drives and electrifying touchdowns, and (hopefully) enough of a pile-on to easily cover the spread.
Ailing after the loss of Ahmad Bradshaw, the Army Black Knights are more than 4-touchdown ‘dogs against Oklahoma when they visit Norman this Saturday.
However, the Vegas spread also has a lot to do with OU’s terrific start – including a 63-14 win over Florida Atlantic in Week 1 that actually shut Lane Kiffin up for a day or 2. That’s worth some bonus points in the spread or just in general.
Who: Army Black Knights at Oklahoma Sooners
When: Saturday, September 22nd, 7 PM EST
Where: Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium, Norman, OK
Lines: Army (+31) at OU (-31) / O/U Total: (60)
West Point hasn’t just lost its finest modern QB and Flexbone talisman in Bradshaw, it has lost its best pass-rusher Alex Aukerman to his tour of duty as well.
Give the Black Knights credit for hanging in there. Army’s 28-12 Week 3 win over Hawaii, which pushed the squad to 2-1, was a seriously impressive display of team defense and resolve. Hawaii looked like a terrific team over the first 3 weeks and may still turn out to be one.
Handicappers in Vegas know that Army isn’t to be taken lightly. It’s the fact that Oklahoma, behind a powerful rushing attack and with a laser-passer like Kyler Murray in the pocket, could simply drive up and down the field (slowly but surely if necessary) and control the entire contest. If that happens, a less-than or more-than 31-point margin becomes a matter of luck in garbage time.
But one thing to consider is that Army doesn’t believe in garbage time. If there’s 2 things we know about service academy players, it’s that they’re disciplined and they don’t ever quit. Junior QB Kelvin Hopkins isn’t letting the West Point offense get its dobber down without Bradshaw, and had a fine rushing and passing day against the Rainbow Warriors last week.
Hopkins won’t be able to throw as much against the Sooners if at all, not because he can’t throw but because the OU defensive backfield is so much taller, longer and more explosive than the QB’s role-player backs coming into the flat looking to get open. If I know Coach Jeff Monken’s team, Army will try to run the Sooners into the ground and control the ball on very long drives, then snag turnovers on D. It’s the team’s only real hope of an upset.
Has Oklahoma played a comparable defense to Army’s? Probably not. Florida Atlantic is still a rag-tag group of transfers, great on their own but poor as a unit. Week 2 brought a victory over a UCLA team in transition. Perhaps last week’s match-up against ISU is somewhat of a parallel – the Cyclones have an all-effort, lunch pail defense like that of the Black Knights. OU scored 37 points as Murray passed for 348 and 3 scores.
The blog Crimson and Cream Machine points out some interesting Vegas statistics about service-academy teams, almost all of whom run the Flexbone (known to fat ex-SEC coaches on TV as “the triple option” offense):
Since 1995, Army, Navy and Air force have covered the spread roughly 75 of the time when listed as underdogs of more than three touchdowns (21.5 points or more). For perspective, beating the sports book 55 percent of the time would be considered a very high number.
I do believe Oklahoma will win comfortably this weekend, but if the final score shows the margin somewhere in the high teens or low twenties, it won’t necessarily be because the team played poorly. It could simply be because that’s just how a lot of games against Army, Navy and Air Force shake out. Their very style of play incites such results. Just giving you a heads up.
Hmm. I can’t disagree with much of that analysis, though if Army was what it was last year, the Knights would have a lot shorter row to hoe in trying to keep this one competitive.
Hopkins’ performance against a better-than-expected Hawaii defense last week is my reason for liking Army to cover. Hawaii ran Navy off the field and frustrated the Middies’ efforts to come back. Navy would likely cover (+31) against a Top 10 team, so given Army’s significant improvement and better form than their Commander-in-Chief trophy rivals, you’ve got to give Monken’s team at least a 60% chance to hang tight.
But it isn’t likely to be super tight by the end. Expect a competitive game into the 3rd quarter…and trust that the Black Knights will keep playing hard if OU tries to run-up the margin of victory in a 45-20 or 38-17 result.