The no. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes will face their first big test of the season as they travel to Texas to take on the no. 15 TCU Horned Frogs. Game time is set for 8:00 EST on Saturday, September, 15, at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The game will be nationally televised by ABC.
Looking at this week’s college football odds, the Buckeyes are listed as 12.5-point favorites for what amounts to a de facto road game.
Ohio State has had little trouble taking care of business in their first two games without Urban Meyer on the sidelines. They gave up 31 points against Oregon State in their opener, but they also scored 77 points. The Buckeyes had a more balanced performance during their 52-3 win over Rutgers last week. Of course, both of those teams are expected to be among the worst in their respective conference. Needless to say, both pale in comparison to TCU.
The Horned Frogs have also had two convincing wins early in the season. TCU blasted FCS opponent Southern in their opener and then overcame a slow start and rainy weather last week to beat SMU 42-14.
The Buckeyes learned last year in their loss to Oklahoma that a non-conference loss early in the season could cost them a spot in the College Football Playoff if they don’t run the table in the Big Ten. Even without Meyer on the sidelines, Ohio State should be motivated to avoid a slip-up.
TCU, meanwhile, will remember being snubbed for a spot in the CFP a few years ago in favor of Ohio State. They could see this game as a way to get redemption against the Buckeyes. The Horned Frogs also know if they’re going to surprise people and make a Playoff push, they need this win on their resume.
This line is a little higher than I anticipated, which makes it easier to lean toward TCU and the points. To be fair, Ohio State has the talent to potentially blowout just about any team in the country. However, the Horned Frogs are strong defensively and should have the crowd behind them, so I feel comfortable taking them to keep this game close and at least beat the spread.
TCU’s biggest asset by far is their defense. They turned out to be one of the top defensive teams in the country last season and have shown signs of replicating that success early this season. It’s tough to see how success against a team like SMU will translate against Ohio State. But after allowing a touchdown on the first drive of the game, TCU’s defense only allowed three points the rest of the game against SMU while allowing less than 250 total yards in the game.
Obviously, the Ohio State offense provides much more of a challenge. But the same can be said of the Buckeyes. The numbers Ohio State has put up through two games have been astronomical. Quarterback Dwayne Haskins has looked the like real deal despite being a little less mobile than some of the Ohio State quarterbacks of the past. However, I’m not going to get too excited about the Buckeyes dominating Oregon State and Rutgers.
The Horned Frogs were the top rushing defense in the Big 12 last season and also have several capable pass rushers on the defensive line. Haskins hasn’t dealt with much pressure through the first two games, but I doubt that continues to be the case this week. TCU also has far better talent in the secondary than either of Ohio State’s first two opponents. If Haskins makes the kind of mistakes inexperienced quarterbacks are sometimes prone to make, the Horned Frogs have players who can capitalize.
On the other side of the ball, there are still questions about the TCU offense. Quarterback Shawn Robinson has looked good but not great against a couple of subpar defenses, as he’s still getting acclimated to the college game much like Haskins. It was also tough to judge him last week with such poor weather conditions during the game against SMU.
The young TCU offensive line has also shown some signs of promise the first couple of games. Robinson has not been sacked in either of the first two games. The Horned Frogs have also run the ball effectively, although Robinson has done most of the damage in that department.
We also have to keep in mind that Ohio State gave up 31 points and nearly 400 yards of offense against Oregon State. None of those points came in the 4th quarter either, so it’s not like the Beavers scored them all in garbage time. TCU also has an intriguing collection of skill players who may be able to cause Ohio State trouble if Robinson can play well.
While I recognize that Ohio State is probably the better team, I’m still not convinced by their early-season performances. TCU is a legitimate opponent with a strong defense and at least some potential on offense. I admit this pick is a little risky, but I don’t feel comfortable enough with Ohio State just yet to swallow 12.5 points. I’ll lean toward TCU to beat the spread if not pull off the upset.