The no. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes begin their 2018 season sans Urban Meyer when they host the Oregon State Beavers. Kickoff is set for noon EST on Saturday, September 1 at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, Ohio. The game will be nationally televised on ABC. The Buckeyes are listed as a 37-point favorite to beat Oregon State. Check our week 1 Vegas odds and read our previews on more games.
Ohio State, as usual, begins the season as a favorite to win the Big Ten and reach the College Football Playoff. The Buckeyes won the Big Ten title last year, but losses to Oklahoma and Iowa during the regular season kept them out of the playoff. Most expect Ohio State to be title contenders again in 2018. However, they will have to replace longtime quarterback J.T. Barrett and survive Meyer’s three-game suspension at the start of the season.
Oregon State, on the other hand, was arguably the worst power-5 conference team in 2017. They finished the year 1-11. Their only win came against FCS opponent Portland State by a 3-point margin. Jonathan Smith, a former Oregon State quarterback, has been given the task of turning the Beavers around. The good news for Oregon State is that there’s nowhere to go but up.
On paper, this is one of the biggest mismatches you’ll see between two teams from major conferences. Of course, with such a large spread, the game becomes a little more interesting from a betting perspective.
With such a big spread, this is a tricky game to call. Without Meyer on the sidelines, it will also be difficult to predict Ohio State’s mindset and whether they’re going to keep their foot on the pedal if they start to pull away. However, Oregon State is a Pac-12 team in name only. The Beavers don’t have the talent to make this game close. Also, the Buckeyes won five games last season by at least 38 points, including a blowout of Michigan State. With that in mind, I’ll take my chances on Ohio State being able to cover.
Whether Ohio State can cover the 37-point spread will depend largely on the play of quarterback Dwayne Haskins. As a whole, he has a lot to prove this season in terms of running the zone-read and making plays with his legs like Barrett did for so many years. But there’s little doubt about Haskins’ proficiency throwing the ball. He has a cannon of an arm and looked sharp when Ohio State needed him late last season against Michigan. With no shortage of talent at wide receiver, the Buckeyes should have little trouble creating big plays in the passing game, helping them to score early and often.
Moreover, the Buckeyes should have also a productive running game, even if Haskins isn’t that mobile. J.K. Dobbins is back after rushing for 1,400 yards last season, as is backup Mike Weber, who actually scored more touchdowns than Dobbins in 2017 despite 90 fewer carries. The Beavers were atrocious defensively last season, and even if they end up improving over the course of the season, they don’t have the talent in the front-7 to stand up to Ohio State.
If the Beavers want to avoid getting blown out, they’re going to have to score points. The good news is that starting quarterback Jake Luton is back after suffering a serious back injury last September. Luton is 6’7’’ with a strong arm and actually has a decent set of skill players around him. However, he’s not particularly mobile and has a rather questionable offensive line in front of him. The likes of Nick Bosa and Ohio State’s other pass rushers could end up having a field day against Luton and the Oregon State offensive line, especially if the Beavers fall behind early.
The Beavers are also implementing a new offense this year, so they may not be that sharp in the season opener. They will also be attempting to run an up-tempo offense. But tempo won’t matter much if the Beavers can’t gain positive yards on 1st and 2nd down. Despite some questions about the Ohio State defense heading into the season, the Buckeyes should have more than enough to talent to overwhelm the Oregon State offense and prevent them from getting into any kind of rhythm.
To be fair to Oregon State, they hung around with some top teams last season. However, they always seemed susceptible to getting blown out on the road. They’re also a west coast team that will be playing a noon game in the eastern time zone. That’s could make it all the more difficult to get off to a fast start. Unless the Beavers can start strong, they’re liable to get steamrolled by the Buckeyes. I’ll swallow the points and look for Ohio State to cover the 37-point spread against the Beavers.