Coming off a loss last week, the no. 10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish take on another ranked team as the no. 18 Virginia Cavaliers come to town. Kickoff is set for 3:30 EST on Saturday, September 28 at Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend, Indiana. The game will be broadcast nationally on NBC.
If we check this week’s college football odds, we find that Notre Dame is favored by 11.5 points at home. The over/under for the game is set at 50.5 points.
As mentioned, Notre Dame is trying to bounce back after last week’s loss to Georgia. The Irish have nothing to be ashamed of despite the loss; they left Athens after earning the respect of the Georgia faithful. Notre Dame had a chance to win on their final possession but fell a little short. The Irish beat the spread and probably won’t be penalized too much by the College Football Playoff committee for the loss.
That being said, the Fighting Irish surely have to win out to have any chance to reach the CFP for the second straight year. Notre Dame’s schedule may not be strong enough to absorb two losses and keep them in the conversation. The Irish need to win and win convincingly from here on out, especially in their three remaining games against ranked teams.
Of course, Virginia is no pushover, as they head to South Bend at 4-0. The Cavs are already halfway to last year’s win total of eight games and appear to be the team to beat in the ACC Coastal division. Wins over Pitt and Florida State have Virginia atop the Coastal division at 2-0. However, they may have been looking ahead last week and needed to overcome a 17-0 deficit against Old Dominion last week, ultimately winning 28-17.
Believe it or not, a win on Saturday could catapult Virginia into the CFP conversation. The Cavaliers have plenty of tricky games left in the ACC, but this is their last scheduled game against a team that’s currently ranked. With a win over Notre Dame, Virginia could shoot up the polls and have a chance to win out the rest of the regular season.
This will be just the third-ever meeting between Virginia and Notre Dame. The Irish the first meeting in 1989 and then eked out a 34-27 win when they visited Charlottesville in 2015.
There’s bound to be a letdown for the Irish after such a tough loss last week. I also have to assume that Notre Dame is a little beat up physically after playing Georgia. Meanwhile, Virginia is more than good enough to take advantage of the Irish being in a vulnerable spot. I think Notre Dame will find a way to win, but I’m not comfortable eating the points, so I’ll take the Cavs to beat the spread.
I’m not sure Notre Dame is strong enough at the line of scrimmage to pull away from Virginia and cover the spread. Defensively, I have concerns about the Irish stopping the run. That was always going to be a concern against Georgia, but Notre Dame also gave up over 200 rushing yards in their season opener against Louisville. That could be a concern again this week, especially since Virginia has a mobile quarterback in Bryce Perkins. While I’m always a little suspicious when a quarterback is a team’s leading rusher, it’s not all that surprising with Perkins. He’s an incredible athlete who just so happens to play quarterback.
To be fair, Virginia’s offense is a little limited because they don’t have much of a downfield passing attack with Perkins. That will put the Cavaliers at a disadvantage if the Irish can turn this into a shootout. But Perkins has completed 65% of his passes this season and has three reliable wide receivers at his disposal. That gives Virginia a passing game that’s good enough for defenses to respect, helping to open up things for Perkins to make plays with his legs.
On the other side of the ball, I have some lingering concerns about the Notre Dame rushing attack. Quarterback Ian book is only three yards behind Tony Jones Jr. for the team lead in rushing. That’s concerning because Book is more of a scrambler than a runner. Also, the Irish don’t have any proven options in the backfield behind Jones, who hasn’t produced much since the season opener against Louisville. Meanwhile, the Virginia defense has been tough against the run all year, even keeping Florida State running back Cam Akers contained.
The biggest difference between these two teams is Book’s ability to carry the Irish with his arm. But I’m not sure that’s enough to swallow 11.5 points. Even if it takes them time to get going, Perkins and the Virginia offense should be able to score points. More importantly, I don’t think the Virginia defense will get pushed around by the Irish. With Book, I think Notre Dame will pull out a one-score win, but they won’t cover the spread.