Two of the best academic schools in the country will meet on the football field this weekend as the no. 8 Notre Dame Irish host the Vanderbilt Commodores. Game time is set for 2:30 EST on Saturday, September 15, at Notre Dame Stadium. The game will be televised nationally on NBC.
Notre Dame is listed as a 14.5-point favorite over Vanderbilt after the Irish opened at -15. Click here for a full list of this week’s college football odds.
Things are going well for Vandy early in the season. The Commodores have managed comfortable wins over both Middle Tennessee and Nevada. Quarterback Kyle Shurmur is off to a strong start while the Vanderbilt defense has only allowed a total of 17 points over two games. Of course, Vandy’s schedule will get exponentially more difficult from here on out, starting with a road trip to South Bend.
The Irish, meanwhile, have had two close games this season. Of course, only one of those games was expected to be close. Notre Dame held on for a big win over Michigan the first week of the season, a win that moved them into the top-10 in the polls. However, the Irish were rather disappointing last week against Ball State. They gave up 10 points in the 4th quarter to win 24-16 despite being 33.5-point favorites.
Such a close win against a MAC team definitely raised some eyebrows. Remember, unless Notre Dame can go undefeated, they’re going to need some style points along the way in order to stay in the College Football Playoff conversation.
Last week’s lackluster performance puts a little more pressure on the Fighting Irish to win convincingly this week against a team perceived to be weaker than them. Meanwhile, the Commodores will feel good about what they’ve done so far and should head to South Bend thinking they have a puncher’s chance to knock off Notre Dame.
I’ll be honest, I’m intrigued by this Vanderbilt team. They look solid all the way around and have a good balance between offense and defense. Notre Dame’s sluggish performance last week also has me thinking that may the Commodores can make this a close game. However, I’m going to assume Brian Kelly will light a fire under his team this week. That should get the Fighting Irish out of whatever funk they were in against Ball State, so I’ll trust Notre Dame to cover the spread this week.
Ball State provided Vanderbilt with a great blueprint to knock off Notre Dame. They did a nice job of slowing down the Notre Dame rushing attack and forcing Brandon Wimbush to throw the ball. Wimbush ended up throwing 31 times for nearly 297 yards, which is a nice number. However, none of his completions went for more than 30 yards, nor did any go for a touchdown. Wimbush also threw three interceptions, which held back the Notre Dame offense considerably.
The caveat is being able to execute the game plan for 60 minutes. Despite the Irish averaging less than three yards per carry, running backs Jafar Armstrong and Tony Jones Jr. were able to break free at times and pick up large chunks of yards at one time. Even if it happens a few times, that’s enough of an opportunity for a team like Notre Dame to score points.
I will concede that the talent on the Vanderbilt defense is greater than Ball State’s defense. That could give Vandy a better chance to execute such a game plan. However, I still worry that the Commodores don’t have quite enough talent to match up against Notre Dame for 60 minutes. Notre Dame’s offensive talent is akin to what Vandy sees in the SEC every year. If you remember last season, the Commodores enjoyed success in their non-conference games but were overwhelmed once they started playing SEC teams. The situation could be similar for the Vanderbilt defense against Notre Dame.
The same could be true for Vanderbilt’s offense against the Irish. Defensively, Notre Dame has been great this season outside of the 17 points they’ve given up in the 4th quarter over the past two games when they’ve backed off a little. When the Notre Dame defense is putting forth their best effort, they’ve been tough to score against.
While Shurmur and the Vandy offense have been efficient against Middle Tennessee and Nevada, they haven’t exactly run rampant and overwhelmed those teams with dynamic playmakers. I’m just not sure they have enough playmakers around Shurmur to move the ball against Notre Dame with any consistency.
While I wouldn’t be surprised to see Vanderbilt stay competitive with Notre Dame, leaning toward the Irish is still the safer pick. If Notre Dame can play anywhere up to their potential, they shouldn’t have a problem covering a 14.5-point spread. Despite a little trepidation, I feel comfortable swallowing the points and taking Notre Dame.