Two of the top academic schools in the country will meet on the football field this weekend as the Northwestern Wildcats host the Duke Blue Devils. Game time is scheduled for noon EST on Saturday, September 8, at Ryan Field in Evanston, Illinois. Fans can watch the game on ESPNU.
Looking at this week’s college football odds, the Wildcats are listed 2.5-point favorites at home. However, early betting has favored Duke slightly, as Northwestern opened as 3-point favorites.
The Blue Devils are coming off an impressive 34-14 win over Army in their opener. Remember, Duke lost to Army a season ago, so this was a nice win for them. Despite the total yards ending up close to even, the Blue Devils were in control of this game the entire way. Quarterback Daniel Jones was sharp and efficient, only throwing 17 times but completing 13 passes for 197 yards.
The Wildcats also came out on top last week after a challenging road game against Purdue. Northwestern was actually out-gained in the game and nearly let a 14-point 4th quarter lead slip away. But with three forced turnovers and a balanced approach offensively, the Wildcats came out on top against a quality Purdue team 31-27.
These two teams should be well acquainted with one another. They’ve met each of the past three seasons. Northwestern won in both 2015 and 2016, but Duke trampled the Wildcats last season in Durham 41-17. Jones was also excellent in that game, throwing for over 300 yards against the Northwestern defense.
However, last year’s game turned out to be an aberration for both sides. Northwestern rebounded from that poor performance and went on to win 10 games. Duke meanwhile, endured great struggles after a strong September and barely made it to a bowl game.
I’ll be honest, I was impressed by Duke last week and I’m a little worried about Northwestern. But I don’t want to overreact too much to one week of action. I still believe that the Wildcats are the better team in this matchup. With the spread at less than a field goal in favor of the home team, I still think that leaning toward Northwestern is the smart play here.
My biggest concern with Northwestern is at the quarterback position. Clayton Thorson started against Purdue after suffering an ACL injury in last year’s bowl game. He was solid but unspectacular, going 16 for 26 for 172 yards without a touchdown. Thorson was fine, but at some point, the Wildcats are going to need more from him. Northwestern also used T.J. Green, who actually finished the game and also ran for a touchdown in the 2nd quarter. Pat Fitzgerald says the situation will remain “fluid,” implying that both quarterbacks could be used this week.
On the one hand, Duke will now have to prepare to face both quarterbacks, which could give Northwestern an advantage. However, it also implies that Thorson isn’t quite 100% and not fully up to speed with things after missing spring practice and spending most of training camp just trying to work himself back to form. Keep in mind that the Wildcats did all of their scoring against Purdue in the first half. If they end up in a shootout and need points late in the game, I’m not sure which quarterback Fitzgerald would favor, and that concerns me.
The good news is that Jeremy Larkin proved himself as a capable workhorse back for the Wildcats last week. He had 26 carries and racked up 143 yards with two touchdowns. To be fair, the Duke defense played well against the run last week. But that was against Army, a triple-option team they knew would be running the ball. The Northwestern offense has a little more balance to it, regardless of who plays quarterback. Larkin’s performance last week gives me a little more trust in the Wildcats.
I also believe in the Northwestern defense, despite some rocky moments against Purdue. The Wildcats were hit on big plays on a few occasions against the Boilermakers. But that’s an issue that can usually be worked out following the first game, especially when Northwestern has such a talented front-7. I was also underwhelmed by Duke’s running game against a somewhat undersized Army front-7. The Duke offensive line is still coming along, and I think the Wildcats can keep their running game contained.
I also like the Wildcats to give Jones a hard time. The junior looked great last week and had a monster performance both running and passing against Northwestern last season. But I’m not yet convinced that he’s turned a corner after his inconsistency last season. Northwestern’s defense picked off Purdue quarterback Elijah Sindelar three times last week while holding the Boilermakers to just 5.9 yards per pass attempt. I think the Wildcats have the pieces to slow down Jones and force him to make some mistakes.
Despite some concerns about Northwestern, I think they’re the better defensive team, the better running team, and the team more likely to avoid turnovers. The game should be close and competitive, but I think the Wildcats will find a way to pull it out and win by at least a field goal at home.