It will be a battle of two teams from the Lone Star State as the North Texas Green Mean begin the 2018 college football season by hosting the SMU Mustangs. Kickoff is set for 7:30 EST on Saturday, September 1, at Apogee Stadium in Denton, Texas.
According to the Week 1 college football odds, the Mean Green are listed as 3.5-point favorites. That line has increased after North Texas opened as 1.5-point favorites. The game also has an over/under of 71 points.
Sonny Dykes takes over as the head coach at SMU after Chad Morris left for Arkansas. Dykes inherits a team that went 7-6 last season, including a Frisco Bowl loss that he coached. Of course, that was SMU’s first bowl appearance in five games, so the program as a whole progressed under Morris, putting Dykes in a good position to keep the ball rolling.
Meanwhile, North Texas is coming off an appearance in the Conference-USA Championship Game in 2017. The Mean Green won the West division after going 7-1 in league play. However, UNT lost the championship game to Florida Atlantic and then dropped the New Orleans Bowl to Troy, forcing them to settle for a 9-5 record. Nevertheless, it was a good stepping stone in Seth Littrell’s second season at North Texas.
This will be the fifth straight season that these two Texas rivals meet for a non-conference game early in the season. The Mean Green won 43-6 in 2014, only to lose to the Mustangs each of the last three seasons. A year ago, SMU won a 54-32 shootout, leaving the North Texas senior class one last chance to get a win over the Mustangs.
This could finally be the year that North Texas takes down SMU. Dykes appears to have some work to do if SMU is going to maintain the level they reached last year whereas the Mean Green are better set up to keep the ball rolling after nine wins a season ago. To me, that translates to North Texas being better prepared for a tough game early in the season. With a reasonable spread for this game, I have no problem leaning toward North Texas to cover.
SMU will no doubt benefit from the return of starting quarterback Ben Hicks, who threw 33 touchdowns last year. However, he’ll be adjusting to a new offensive system under Dykes. Perhaps more importantly, the Mustangs are losing the dynamic receiver duo of Courtland Sutton and Trey Quinn. They were arguably the best receiver tandem in the country in 2017, and replacing them will be virtually impossible.
To be fair, the Mustangs still have some talented skill players, most notably in the backfield with Xavier Jones, Braeden West, and Ke’Mon Freeman. Dykes will do his best to get those three the ball, even if it means moving them around and using them as receivers at times. However, Hicks has to prove that he can still be just as productive without Sutton and Quinn. The SMU offensive line also has some questions, so I don’t expect to see the Mustangs put up the same kinds of offensive numbers they did a year ago when they scored 40 points or more in over half their games.
The North Texas offense, on the other hand, should have a little more continuity. Quarterback Mason Fine returns after throwing for over 4,000 yards and winning Conference-USA Offensive Player of the Year honors in 2017. Compared to Hicks, Fine was much more accurate last season. He also has the benefit of the Mean Green returning their top three receivers from a year ago.
The biggest problem North Texas faced last season was keeping Fine protected. However, the Mean Green will return four starters up front, so there’s a good chance they’ll be better. If UNT can give Fine time to throw, they have a chance to hit the ground running offensively and not skip a beat from what they did last year.
To be blunt, neither of these teams looks that good defensively heading into the season. Both have a lot to work to do on that side of the ball. SMU is hoping that a new scheme and a couple transfers will help yield better results. Meanwhile, North Texas is hopeful that a slew of returning starters can do better than the unit that got torched on a regular basis last season despite the offense being able to overcome their deficiencies more times than not.
If not for SMU adjusting to a new scheme and having to replace two NFL-caliber receivers, the over on total points might be the best bet in this game. However, 71 is still a lot of points, even for these two teams that combined for 86 points in their meeting a year ago. I feel more comfortable leaning toward North Texas to win and cover. The Mean Green are in better shape offensively and will be much more difficult to stop once they get rolling than the Mustangs. Eventually, North Texas will get the separation they need to cover the 3.5-point spread.