The Virginia Tech Hokies will be looking to bounce back from last week’s loss to Notre Dame when they pay a visit to the North Carolina Tar Heels on Saturday night. Game time is set for 7:00 EST on Saturday, October 13, at Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. Fans can watch the game on ESPNU.
Oddsmakers have Virginia Tech listed as 6-point road favorites. Click here to check out a full list of this week’s college football betting odds.
It’s been a rough month for the Hokies. First, they had a game against East Carolina canceled because of Hurricane Florence. Then they suffered a humiliating loss at the hands of Old Dominion. Despite bouncing back with a win against Duke the following week, the Hokies couldn’t handle Notre Dame at home last week, losing 45-23 in front of the Blacksburg faithful.
However, if they can put all of that behind them, the Hokies are still in control of their own destiny as far as reaching the ACC Championship Game. Virginia Tech is 2-0 in conference play and will play four of their last six games at home, including their most difficult games against Boston College and Miami. In spite of everything, the Hokies have to feel good about where they sit heading into their trip to Chapel Hill this week.
Unfortunately for the Tar Heels, they can’t say the same thing. North Carolina is 1-3 with losses to Cal, East Carolina, and Miami on their resume. The Heels had some hope after they squeaked out a home win against Pitt a couple of weeks ago. However, those good feelings were quickly lost when they were smoked by Miami 47-10 on national TV last week.
After going 3-9 last season, Larry Fedora and company are in danger of having a similar season in 2018. North Carolina has to find a way to win five of their seven remaining games in order to reach a bowl game. If they can pull off an upset over Virginia Tech this week, a bowl game may seem more realistic. However, the Tar Heels have shown few signs of being a bowl team this year.
There’s also the matter of the Tar Heels losing 11 of their last 14 games against Virginia Tech. The last two seasons this matchup has been particularly lopsided with the Hokies outscoring the Tar Heels 93-10. That’s an awfully big gap for UNC to make up and won’t inspire much confidence that the Tar Heels can pull off a surprising win over Virginia Tech.
It feels like the oddsmakers are still punishing Virginia Tech for their loss to Old Dominion. I’m not going to hold that game against them too much, nor will I overreact to their loss to Notre Dame last week. The Hokies are surely the better team in this matchup. North Carolina hasn’t proven that they can hold their own against a quality team. With the spread at less than a touchdown, taking Virginia Tech to cover is a no-brainer for me.
It’s important to remember that the Hokies are being forced to play backup quarterback Ryan Willis in place of the injured Josh Jackson. However, Willis has thrown for over 300 yards in each of his starts. To be fair, he threw over 50 passes to make that happen against Notre Dame. But he also has five touchdown passes to just one interception over his two starts. Despite not giving the Hokies much of a running threat, I think he’s done a fine job and will play well against North Carolina.
Let’s keep in mind that the Tar Heels are giving up nearly 37 points per game. They gave up over 40 points to both Miami and East Carolina while also giving up 35 points to a rather one-dimensional Pitt offense. Even with the Hokies playing a backup quarterback, I’m not sure the UNC defense is equipped to keep the Virginia Tech offense under wraps for four quarters.
It could be up to an underperforming North Carolina offense to keep this game close. The Tar Heels have had exactly one good offensive performance this season. It’s worth noting that game was when they scored 38 points against a Pitt team that’s giving up 39 points per game against FBS teams.
The Tar Heels aren’t even sure who their quarterback will be with Chazz Surratt sharing snaps with Nathan Elliott after the former returned from suspension against Miami. Surratt would give them more of a running threat, but he was also 4 for 10 with three interceptions against Miami. Elliott, meanwhile, has been underwhelming in his starts outside of the game against Pitt. It’s been established that the Hokies are vulnerable against the pass. However, UNC may not have the passing game to exploit that weakness.
At the end of the day, North Carolina is 120th nationally in points scored and 111th nationally in points allowed. Whatever shortcomings Virginia Tech has had this season, they’re not nearly as egregious as those numbers. I have no problem leaning toward the Hokies to win this game by at least a touchdown and cover the spread.