North Carolina Georgia Odds

In a Week 1 Top 25 showdown, the No. 18 Georgia Bulldogs take on the No. 22 North Carolina Tar Heels on Saturday, September 3rd. The Bulldogs are 9-1 all-time in the series, but the last meeting was the 1971 Gator Bowl in which they won 7-3.

Georgia is coming off yet another 10-win season, its fourth in the last five years. But that wasn’t enough for head coach Mark Richt to keep his job. Now Richt is at his alma-mater in Miami, while Kirby Smart joins his alma-mater in Georgia after serving as defensive coordinator at Alabama over the past eight years.

North Carolina was a pleasant surprise last year as it finished 11-3 and won the ACC’s Coastal Division. The Tar Heels may have even made the four-team playoff had they beaten Clemson, but they lost that contest 37-45 and went on to lose 38-49 to Baylor in the Russell Athletic Bowl.

Kickoff inside the Georgia Dome is scheduled for 5:30 EST Saturday night with ESPN providing the television coverage. Taking a look at the odds in Las Vegas, I find Georgia as a 2.5-point favorite over North Carolina with a total set of 57 points.

My Early Lean: Georgia -2.5

I believe the Bulldogs will hit the ground running in Kirby Smart’s first season on the job. Talent certainly was not the issue for this team under Mark Richt, who cashed in four 10-win seasons in his past five years. While I don’t agree with his firing, I do believe Smart will do just as good of a job, if not better, here.

Smart inherits a ton of talent and experience with 14 returning starters. The offense figures to be vastly improved with eight starters back and likely better play at the quarterback position. Greyson Lambert will get the nod after completing 63.3 percent of his passes with 12 touchdowns and only two interceptions last year. Look for the senior to step up his game this season.

The good news is that the Bulldogs will have an elite running game now that Nick Chubb is back and healthy. They started 4-1 last year with their only loss to Alabama, but then Chubb was out for the year with a knee injury suffered against Tennessee and the Bulldogs leading 24-3. They would go on to lose that game. Chubb still finished with 747 rushing yards and seven touchdowns while averaging 8.1 yards per carry in five-plus games.

The biggest thing Smart adds to this team is his expertise on defense. And he should come close to matching Georgia’s numbers last year on this side of the ball. It gave up just 16.9 points and 306 yards per game. Four of the top seven tacklers and six starters return.

I have a very good feeling that UNC was a one-hit wonder last year. It came out of nowhere to win 11 games and the Coastal Division. But now the hype is too strong heading into 2015, and the Tar Heels are sure to take a step back.

They do return 14 starters, but they lose their best player in QB Marquise Williams, who threw for 3,072 yards with 24 touchdowns and 10 interceptions last year. He also rushed for 948 yards and 13 scores. The Tar Heels will turn to junior Mitch Trubisky, who has some massive shoes to fill.

Defensively, the Tar Heels only gave up 24.5 points per game last year after giving up 39.0 in 2014. However, they still gave up 436 yards per game and weren’t that good of a defense. They surrendered 17.8 yards per point last year after giving up 12.8 yards per point in 2014. That was more luck than anything.

North Carolina is 2-11 in its last 13 road openers and went 0-3 last year in games played on a neutral field, including a 13-17 loss to South Carolina in the opener. That was an awful Gamecocks team that finished 3-9 on the season. The Tar Heels really struggled against the big boys last year in Baylor and Clemson as well.

Georgia is 25-10 ATS in its last 35 vs. ACC opponents. The Bulldogs are 28-12 ATS in their last 40 non-conference road games. Larry Fedora is 0-6 ATS in September road games as the coach of North Carolina.

Georgia is 25-10 ATS in its last 35 vs. ACC opponents. The Bulldogs are 28-12 ATS in their last 40 non-conference road games. Larry Fedora is 0-6 ATS in September road games as the coach of North Carolina.

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