Ah, the lure of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. John Madden once called an NFL TV producer to predict (in a sleepy “whatever” tone) what the lead-off of next Sunday’s show was going to be, based solely on 1 of the key players in the national game hailing from UND.
“I know the opening shot already, it’s the Golden Dome, up in the sky, in the clouds,” the great coach said. “Probably spinning like a big hubcap or something.”
Fighting Irish fans’ heads are in the clouds after the last 12 months. Notre Dame has gone to the College Football Playoff, found its next great QB (we hope) in Ian Book, and sealed a new reputation for winning and contending under head coach Brian Kelly.
Week 1 of 2019 brought a ho-hum 35-17 win for UND over Louisville, currently among the weaker teams in the ACC. Week 2 was an off-week. Will a date with visiting New Mexico this Saturday finally produce some drama?
College football odds-makers don’t think so, and neither does the gambling public.
Who: New Mexico Lobos at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
When: Saturday, September 14th, 2:30 PM EST
Where: Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, IN
Lines: UNM (+35.5) vs UND (-35.5) / O/U Total: (63)
The spread offense is a gateway drug.
What some readers would probably consider my “obsession” with unique 11-on-11 rushing offenses in the FBS and NFL is really a simple handicapping principle – if there’s an underdog which is rated an underdog on the gambling board thanks to some kind of athletic inferiority, how is that team going to win doing the same thing its opponent does? If you were playing battle-chess and the other player’s pieces were better than yours, could you ever win consistently by making the same moves that she does? Nobody is consciously aware of it, but the reason so many of those sleepy weekday MAC-tion games are boring is that it’s a superior team and an inferior team running the Zone-Read at each other for 3 hours.
Various underdogs in FBS leagues have installed cool new versions of the spread offense that incorporate triple-option and Run & Shoot concepts. New Mexico is 1 of those teams under Bob Davie. But like Auburn, Tulane, and a handful of other programs, the Lobos’ offense has gotten more and more conventional over time as recruiting takes precedence.
New Mexico used to run a monumentally spread-out version of the Army/Navy offense, and in Davie’s 2nd season, the Lobos ran for 400 yards against Boise State. In the 1st half.
Compare that to UNM’s 2019 debut, in which Davie’s squad failed to press an early advantage over Sam Houston State of the FBS despite having a hot running back in Ahmari Davis. The pass rush shined for much of the 39-31 win, but the secondary allowed 2 opposing QBs prolific passing yards, and safety Johnny Hernandez led the defense in tackles.
Davie’s reign in the southwest has been plagued by tabloid headlines and meddling boosters, and the Lobos look like more-or-less an ordinary underdog stepping into South Bend to get killed, except for the weird regional mix.
Could we be overconfident in the Fighting Irish, though, based on the Louisville win? It’s not as if the game wasn’t competitive in the 1st half – the Irish simply outlasted the Cardinals with superior depth.
That’s fine – as I recall Bobby Bowden’s FSU teams used to lead ACC also-rans 12-7 at halftime and 55-7 at the end. But UND did allow Louisville tailback Javian Hawkins to do damage:
University of Louisville redshirt freshman Javian Hawkins made the most of his first opportunity as a starter Monday against No. 9 Notre Dame, one of the most storied football programs in the country. With a record-setting 58,187 in attendance at Cardinal Stadium, Hawkins – or “PlayStation,” as his teammates call him – took full advantage of the opportunity, rushing for 122 yards on 19 carries.
Hawkins had only two rushing attempts last season in three games of action before redshirting for the remainder of the season, but in his first career start, Hawkins looked like a special talent and an experienced runner, averaging 6.4 yards a carry.
I’ve got a hunch. New Mexico does have a set of talented and flashy runners, and in this particular game the more cliche dual-threat attack of the Lobos in ’19 could help to hold onto the ball vs Notre Dame.
But Brian Kelly knows exactly what to do in this kind of circumstance.
Bombs away! Kelly is not going to let Ian Book hand the ball off too often in the 1st half, knowing that New Mexico can still control the tempo with long drives if given the chance. Look for UND to play fast and loose, and answer quickly every time UNM manages to score points.
The result should be a 54-17 type of final that wins on the Over (63) by the leading edge of mop-up time.