The second year of the Scott Frost era officially kicks off for the no. 24 Nebraska Cornhuskers when they play host to the South Alabama Jaguars. The game is scheduled for noon EST on Saturday, August 31, at Memorial Stadium in Lincoln, Nebraska. Fans can watch the game on ESPN.
According to our Week 1 odds, the Cornhuskers are favored by 35.5 points against South Alabama. The over/under for the game is 64.5 points.
Few teams made more progress from the start of 2018 to the end of the season than Nebraska. With Scott Frost returning to his alma mater after leading Central Florida to an undefeated season and fake national championship in 2017, both excitement and expectations were high. However, Frost knew it would take time, which turned out to be the case.
The Cornhuskers lost their first six games of the season, including an embarrassing home defeat to Troy. However, they finished the season strong, winning four of their final six games and nearly pulling off upsets of Ohio State and Iowa. Those half a dozen games created immense amounts of excitement heading into the 2019 season and were even enough to put Nebraska in the top-25.
Things are a little different for South Alabama, which hasn’t won more than six games in a season since joining the Sun Belt in 2012. To be fair, the Jaguars have made a couple of bowl games during that time, but they remain very much a rebuilding program at the moment.
It’s currently Steve Campbell’s job to do the building at South Alabama. After a successful stint at FCS program Central Arkansas, Campbell was just 3-9 during his first season at South Alabama in 2018. He appears to have things moving in the right direction, but the Jaguars are still considered one of the worst programs in college football until they can prove otherwise.
The only other meeting between Nebraska and South Alabama came in 2015. The Cornhuskers dominated that game 48-9, although both programs have changed head coaches since then.
For the record, I don’t like the idea of swallowing this many points, especially for a team that went 4-8 last year. But I’m going to go along with the crowd and drink the Nebraska Kool-Aid. The Cornhuskers came a long way last season and should be even better this year. They are also playing one of the worst teams in the country, so I’ll put my worries aside and lean toward Nebraska to cover this enormous spread.
Everybody knows that Nebraska’s offense begins and ends with quarterback Adrian Martinez. He’s already being talked about as a Heisman candidate after throwing for 2,600 yards and 17 passing touchdowns last season. Of course, Martinez is also a huge threat in the running game, gaining over 600 yards on the ground last year and finding the end zone with his legs eight times. If you believe the hype, he should have a field day against a team like South Alabama.
Admittedly, I do like the supporting cast that Martinez has around him. JD Spielman was having a great season until he got hurt, tight end Jack Stoll should be one of the best in the Big Ten at his position, and Cal transfer Kanawai Noa should be a big help. The offensive line also made major strides over the course of last season and should be in good shape. The bottom line is that Martinez is far from a one-man show on the Nebraska offense, which makes me feel a little better about swallowing 35.5 points.
Perhaps more importantly, the South Alabama defense is in disarray. The Jaguars allowed nearly 40 points per game last year and have lost seven starters from last season. They have a defensive line that will probably be pushed around by Nebraska, allowing the Cornhuskers to establish their rushing attack early. The South Alabama secondary is also in rough shape, making it easy to envision Martinez taking a few chances down the field and connecting on some big plays. The possibility of the Cornhuskers being able to strike quickly on long pass plays makes their ability to cover the spread a little more realistic.
Finally, I think the Nebraska defense will be better than people realize. The Nebraska offense is the biggest reason why the Cornhuskers are a top-25 team heading into the season. But the defense is ready to do its part as well. The defensive line, in particular, should be good enough to dominate an inferior team like South Alabama.
If the Jaguars can’t hold their own at the line of scrimmage, it’ll be a long day for their offense. They averaged less than four yards per carry on the ground last season and sophomore quarterback Cephus Johnson has just 19 career pass attempts. Without much help around him, he could be out of his depth against Nebraska.
Again, I have some concerns about Nebraska being able to handle a spread this big, even against an inferior opponent. But I’ll buy the hype and give the Cornhuskers the benefit of the doubt. After all, Frost appears to be moving things a little faster than expected. I’ll reluctantly eat the 35.5 points and lean toward Nebraska to cover against South Alabama.