There’s an ACC battle on tap for Saturday night as the Florida State Seminoles host the NC State Wolfpack. Kickoff is at 7:30 EST on Saturday, September 28 at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, Florida. Fans can catch all of the action on the ACC Network.
If we look at the Week 5 college football odds, the Seminoles are 6-point favorites at home. The game also has an over/under of 60 points.
Florida State has had a rather up and down season. They’ve yet to put together four consecutive quarters of decent football, even in their wins. Against Louisiana-Monroe, the Seminoles blew a lead and only won because of a missed PAT in overtime. Even last week, they took a 21-0 lead in the first quarter, only to fall behind 24-21 in the fourth quarter and then have to come from behind to beat Louisville.
As it stands, FSU is 2-2 overall and 1-1 in ACC play. The Seminoles have a bye next week but then return to face the meat of their ACC schedule against the likes of Clemson, Syracuse, Miami, and Boston College. If the ‘Noles lose at home to NC State this week, just getting to a bowl game could prove difficult. Even with a win, there are no guarantees, but this is surely a game Florida State has to win.
Meanwhile, the Wolfpack head to Tallahassee for their ACC opener at 3-1. After a pair of lopsided wins, NC State suffered a setback a couple of weeks ago, losing to West Virginia 44-27. They managed to bounce back last week against Ball State, although they were out-gained in the game and the 34-23 scoreline didn’t come close to covering the spread against their opponents from the MAC.
Of course, most expected this to be a rebuilding year for NC State. The good news is that the Wolfpack only need three wins in ACC play to get to a bowl game for the sixth consecutive season. Much like FSU, NC State’s most difficult games are all ahead of them. Getting a win in Tallahassee would give the Wolfpack a huge lift in ensuring a bowl spot while also giving them some momentum heading into next week’s bye.
The Wolfpack are also trying to make it three straight wins over Florida State. Not surprisingly, the Seminoles own the all-time series, including 18 wins in 25 meetings between 1992 and 2016. But Dave Doeren and company have gotten the better of Florida State the past two years, including a 27-21 win in NC State’s last trip to Tallahassee two years ago.
For the record, I’m not sold on Florida State. I just have bigger concerns for NC State. They were unimpressive last week against a MAC team and looked dreadful on the road against a mediocre West Virginia team the previous week. The Seminoles managed a double-digit win over Louisville last week despite only playing well in two quarters, which is enough to convince me they can beat NC State by a touchdown and cover.
It’s worth noting there is a question about the FSU quarterback situation with James Blackman suffering a sprained knee last week. Blackman, for the most part, has been sharp early in the season. Florida State’s collapses this season have been more so on the defense than the offense. Despite getting sacked 11 times in four games, Blackman has posted solid numbers and been reliable, so it’s a big loss for the Seminoles if he can’t play.
On the bright side, the ‘Noles have Wisconsin transfer Alex Hornibrook as their backup if Blackman is unavailable. To be honest, I wasn’t a huge fan of Hornibrook during his time with the Badgers. He was mistake-prone at times and not always reliable. However, he has over two years of starting experience under his belt, so Florida State should feel fortunate to have him as their backup. The Seminoles also have running back Cam Akers, who is nearly at the 500-yard mark four games into the season. The FSU offense should be able to lean on him regardless of who plays quarterback.
Meanwhile, the NC State offense is going through some growing pains with sophomore quarterback Matthew McKay. In fairness, McKay has only thrown one interception through four games, so turnovers aren’t an issue. However, he’s only thrown three touchdown passes and has completed less than 60% of his passes. Despite some of FSU’s deficiencies on defense this year, they have more speed and talent than any of the defenses McKay has faced this year. That’s what worries me about the young NC State quarterback.
Right now, the Wolfpack need to run the ball effectively to have success on offense. McKay has been part of that, and NC State also has three reliable backs who have contributed. However, the FSU defense has been solid against the run this year. They haven’t shut it down, but they’ve limited big plays. Given McKay’s limitations throwing the ball, that could be enough to keep the NC State offense at bay.
In the end, Florida State has two quarterbacks who are better than NC State’s quarterback. The Seminoles will also have the best running back on the field. With FSU being at home, that should be enough to win and cover the 6-point spread.