The NC State Wolfpack will kick off their 2019 season against a familiar foe when they host the East Carolina Pirates. Game time is set for noon EST on Saturday, August 31, at Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh, North Carolina. Fans can find the game on the ACC Network.
Based on our Week 1 college football odds, the Wolfpack are favored by 17 points at home. The over/under for the game is listed at 56 points.
NC State is seeking its sixth consecutive bowl game in 2019. Head coach Dave Doerun has brought a sense of stability to the Wolfpack after going 3-9 and winless in ACC play during his first season in 2019.
NC State has also started to move up the pecking order in the competitive ACC Atlantic division. In 2017, they finished second in the division and last year they finished third. The Wolfpack won nine games in both seasons, and matching that win total in 2019 would be considered a successful season.
Meanwhile, East Carolina is starting over. They parted ways with head coach Scottie Montgomery after three disastrous seasons. The Pirates went 9-26 under Montgomery and haven’t been to a bowl game since 2015.
It’s now up to Mike Houston to turn things around in Greenville. Houston has a big job ahead of him, but he brings a winning pedigree. He helped turn The Citadel around in two seasons and then led James Madison to an FCS national championship in 2016. In his three seasons at James Madison, Houston was 37-6, so the Pirates will feel like they’re in good hands.
Located less than 100 miles apart, NC State and East Carolina have a rather intense rivalry. East Carolina actually won three straight against the Wolfpack until last season when NC State won 58-3 to close out the regular season. The Pirates will be hoping for a more competitive game as they head back to Raleigh to begin the 2019 season.
Honest, I’m surprised to see this line at less than 20 points. Eight months ago, there was a 55-point difference between these two teams. Even with NC State doing a lot of rebuilding on offense, it’s hard to envision East Carolina being 40 points better than they were against the Wolfpack at the end of the 2018 season. At home, I don’t see any reason why NC State shouldn’t win by three touchdowns and cover the spread.
Obviously, there are concerns about the NC State offense with so many key players to replace. Quarterback Ryan Finley threw for nearly 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns last year. The Wolfpack also had two 1,000-yard receivers and a 1,000-yard rusher who aren’t back. That’s a lot of production to replace, and having three starters on the offensive line to replace won’t make the job any easier.
But the cupboard is far from bare at NC State. There are a number of capable replacements waiting to take the spot of the team’s departed playmakers. The only real question is at quarterback, as Matthew McKay and Florida State transfer Bailey Hockman are both expected to play early in the year. That may actually give the Wolfpack an edge, as it’ll force East Carolina to spend time preparing for both quarterbacks. There’s also the issue of how bad the Pirates were defensively last year. Even if the ECU defense returns seven starters, they lost some of their best playmakers from a year ago, and that was from a team that gave up 37 points per game in 2018.
On the other side of the ball, there is a little bit of optimism regarding the NC State defense. This unit struggled last season, especially against the pass. However, the Wolfpack were young in spots a year ago and return eight starters. Obviously, that means NC State will be looking for different results with the same set of players. But keep in mind that this same group of players held East Carolina to three points at the end of last year.
More importantly, the Pirates may not be all that much improved on offense since the end of last season. In the long-term, the new coaching staff should get the ECU offense on track. But that doesn’t mean they’ll hit the ground running in 2019.
The good news is that Holton Ahlers returns as the starting quarterback. The bad news is he completed less than 50% of his passes last year despite limiting himself to three interceptions. He was also ECU’s leading rusher, which says more about the rest of the offense than it does him. The only other bright spot last year was 1,000-yard receiver Trevon Brown, who has exhausted his eligibility. In other words, this offense is in rough shape and more or less starting from scratch. under the new coaching staff.
Even if NC State takes a step back early in 2019, they’re still head and shoulders better than East Carolina. The Pirates can feel good about their future, but they shouldn’t be expecting any miracles right away. The season opener against NC State could be another long day. I have no problem leaning toward the Wolfpack to cover the 17-point spread.