It’s a funny thing with the service academies. Pundits annually overlook their option-offense prowess, and the natural advantage that military work ethic and discipline brings into any scrum. But Vegas odds-makers have another problem altogether with Navy, Air Force, Army and The Citadel.
In Vegas, the academies tend to be judged on scoreboard results alone, leaving out some of the particulars of their brand of football. Just because a Navy team is 5-2 and their opponent is 3-5 doesn’t mean the Midshipmen have the better pure athletes, man for man, 2 deep. Often, the reverse is true.
A quick look at the point spread and disparate O/U totals (having shrunk by 3 points already on some betting boards) for this contest shows that bookies aren’t sure what to make of it.
Temple is in a re-building year, making their reign as AAC Champions a lame-duck term of sorts. But the offense is playing better, and the defense just played a whole “practice” game against the Paul Johnson-designed Flexbone of Army – the same basic playbook utilized by the Midshipmen.
Who: Navy Midshipmen at Temple Owls
When: Thursday, November 2nd, 8 PM EST
Where: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
Lines: Navy (-8) at Temple (+8) / O/U Total: (55)
It’s hard to tell if the Middies are in a slump, or just suffering from a suddenly-tough schedule after beating also-rans in the first 5 weeks. Navy’s defense will be sharp and quick as always, but lacks a world-class pass rush (especially on the road), isn’t forcing as many turnovers as the team surrenders, and can be beaten deep. Ken Niumatalolo’s program received wonderful news at QB this week, as Zach Abey did not suffer a concussion in the 31-21 loss to Central Florida, and will start against the Owls.
Temple has good QB news of a different sort. They’re down to their backup, but he passed for almost 300 yards against Army and kept the Owls’ improvement on offense churning along. It’s Frank Nutile, a junior with size (6’4″) and football sense after a few years in the program.
Navy’s offense won’t be shut down, because the coaches also have 4 quarters of very recent film demonstrating how the Owls like to play against the Flexbone these days.
We think Navy will win a close game, and it won’t be a tight defensive battle. Nutile should have success passing early, and the Owls are playing for their postseason lives. Take the over, or Temple to cover (+8).