It is said that any kind word for a coaching staff can also be construed as a negative. If a coach is a “patient teacher,” that means he’s soft and overly permissive. If he sticks to his guns and stays true to the system, he’s strong-willed and has a vision…or he’s stubborn and guilty of stereotyped thinking.
Navy head coach Ken Niumatalolo is strong willed, and he’s got a vision. But the vision involves keeping a small, fast, fragile player named Malcolm Perry in the QB position in the Flexbone attack Navy has utilized throughout the skipper’s reign in Annapolis.
Perry is a game-breaker who is almost impossible for weaker defenses to stop. In the Midshipmen’s last outing against East Carolina on 9/14, the signal-caller combined for 300 rushing and passing yards and 6 touchdowns, 4 of them on the ground. A handy connection with all-purpose skill player C.J. Williams helped to enhance the senior’s questionable passing skills, and the Mids’ defense is getting slowly better over time thanks to lessened recruiting restrictions and allowances for frosh linemen’s weight when enrolling.
But is the entire scheme a time-bomb waiting to explode? The QB has a history of getting hurt when playing against big, mean front-7s. Niumatalolo has returned to Perry at quarterback again and again only to be set back and see his offense set adrift when the inevitable occurs.
Las Vegas college football handicappers aren’t concerned with the long-term injury issues involved in putting your best sub-200 pound runner at QB and letting him carry the rock at will. They’re only concerned with what Perry will do in the next game. Bookmakers opened action on Navy’s prime-time appearance at the Liberty Bowl this Thursday with Memphis a 2-touchdown favorite, but gamblers quickly pounced on the Middies’ side of the line and shrank the margin to around 10 points.
Injuries to QBs come in all shapes and sizes though, and if Perry is savaged by the Tiger defense his effectiveness will go down even if he is able to remain on the field.
Who: Navy Midshipmen at Memphis Tigers
When: Thursday, September 26th, 8 PM EST
Where: Liberty Bowl, Memphis, TN
Lines: Navy (+10.5) at Memphis (-10.5) / O/U Total: (55)
The Mids are 2-0, but favored Memphis is 3-0 and has probably faced the toughest opponent for either team so far. Ole Miss visited the Tigers on 8/31 and lost 15-10 in a defensive battle as Mike Norvell’s squad held a Power-5 offense to less than 200 total yards.
In fact, Memphis probably should have won by a bunch more. Patrick Taylor Jr. had a marvelous outing running the ball, but QB Brady White couldn’t find the end zone, and the hosts scored nothing but a safety throughout a tense 2nd half.
The Tiger defense had a natural let-down of sorts against Southern of the FCS, but the offense started to warm up in Week 2 with the 55-24 win, and then Memphis put it all together in a 42-6 victory over South Alabama.
Since then, Thursday’s favorites have been preparing for something called “the triple option” offense according to the Memphis media, which is a strange tactic since no such offense exists. The triple-option is merely an individual go-to play among many in Navy’s playbook.
In other news, Texas Tech opponents are preparing for the Bubble Screen offense, while Ohio’s upcoming foes must get ready for the Overly Methodical Read-Option Give attack.
As for Navy, pundits are pointing out that Memphis’ 1st-ranked pass defense won’t bother the Mids very much since the team is so committed to running the ball. Fearsome Tiger defensive end Bryce Huff is a terrific pass rusher and pursuer who can simply go unblocked and optioned-off if Navy so chooses.
However, that puts pressure on Navy’s untested D, since the Tigers must only get ahead by 14 or 21 points to make the visitors have to recalibrate and mix-in a few downfield passes. Annapolis is high on new defensive coordinator Bryan Newberry, who appears to have the unit in decent shape:
Navy finished the 2018 season ranked at the bottom of the Football Bowl Subdivision in nearly every defensive category. The Midshipmen stood 103rd out of 129 FBS programs in scoring defense with 33.5 points per game given up and 86th in total defense with an average of 426.4 yards allowed.
Holy Cross and East Carolina are not the most high-powered opponents Navy will face this season, but the statistics so far are impressive. The Midshipmen currently stand fifth in scoring defense (8.5 points) and sixth in FBS in total defense (226.5 yards). Perhaps most impressive is what the Mids are doing on third down. East Carolina converted just 2 of 13 third down opportunities and had to punt the ball seven times as a result. Holy Cross had gone 3 of 12 on third down conversion attempts. Navy ranked No. 121 in third down conversion defense last season.
Memphis is a lot bigger and stronger at the LOS than either of Navy’s 2 previous opponents, and should choose to focus on running the ball. That’s probably why the Over/Under is shrinking after opening closer to 60 points.
I hate to follow up all of the analysis with a simple “percentage” pick, but the current point spread of (+10.5) offers the chance for Navy to cover by playing a reasonably good game. The Middies have dominated at the Liberty Bowl before and tend to play well in big games when coming in on a hot streak.
Forget the poor record Navy posted last year, and remember that Malcolm Perry probably won’t be worn down until Week 7 or Week 8. In the meantime he’s a dangerous player and Navy is a dangerous underdog.
Take the Mids to cover at (+10.5) but reduce units if the line moves to 10 points even.