It feels like whenever there’s a Navy-vs-opponent prediction to be made, my blogging tends to focus on Navy. Maybe that’s because contrary to how the media covers service academies, they’re not static quantities. A high % of the time, the result of a match-up involving the Midshipmen is related to the general trajectory of their program, more so than that of the opponent.
Navy’s recruiting classes are improving, but still on the low-side of the FBS in pure speed and skill. When the team’s QB situation is cloudy, or when there are key injuries, the Middies can lose to anyone in any conference. Even a good FCS team could wallop them.
But when there’s a terrific signal-caller in place and the squad is humming? Aye, aye, sir. The Naval Academy is a dangerous opponent for any Top 25 school…when things are going well in Annapolis.
Hawaii is threatening to flip that script this season. Considered a mid-major doormat once again after winning only 3 games in 2017, the Rainbow Warriors shocked August “Week Zero” viewers with a sparkling 43-34 win over Colorado State.
However, the Midshipmen remain hefty point-spread favorites for when the schools clash on Saturday. The contest will air well into the late-night hours on the east coast, making it a potential recovery-wager for bettors having an unlucky weekend.
Who: Navy Midshipmen at Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
When: Saturday, September 1st, 11 PM EST
Where: Aloha Stadium, Halawa, HI
Lines: Navy (-16) at Hawaii (+16) / O/U Total: (53 1/2)
Find more week 1 college lines and links to previews on all the big games by clicking here.
As I wrote in BetFirm’s Minnesota vs New Mexico prediction, point spreads that hover around plus/minus (17) points are fun and also tricky:
Point spreads that hover around +/- 17 points are fun. A 17-point lead is a benchmark of success on the gridiron. Prior to the 2-point conversion being adapted into the NFL, the number of 17+ point leads taken by a team in the course of a season was only a significant stat in high school and college football. Today, it is crucial on all 3 levels.
A 17-point lead means that 2 perfect possessions are not enough to tie the leading team, even with added 2-point conversions after TDs. 16 points is the maximum on 2 possessions, so a 17+ point lead is usually safe even if your defense blows a gasket on multiple series.
Navy’s stock for Week 1 is actually increasing among gamblers despite Hawaii’s potential hot start. The point spread for Saturday’s late (or at least latest) contest opened at under 2 touchdowns and is steadily climbing toward a (-17) type of number.
It’s a strange line-movement because Navy is not a popular bet vs a mid-major in the same sense as Alabama or LSU. Perhaps bettors are convinced that QB Malcolm Perry is coach Ken Niumatalolo’s new unstoppable weapon.
As the quarterback position goes, so do the Navy Midshipmen. The program impressed handicappers by whipping Missouri in the 2009 Texas Bowl, but that was with battering-ram QB Ricky Dobbs taking 20+ carries. When Dobbs embarked on his tour of duty, Navy struggled until Keenan Reynolds developed into a record-setting star, then caught fire briefly in 2016 with unheralded senior QB Will Worth.
Perry could be even more exciting to watch than any of his predecessors, but maybe pundits are a little too excited about his Denard Robinson-like running and not looking at the downside. It remains to be seen if Navy can pass the football at all with a former slot-back taking snaps. The junior QB is also 5’9″ and 185 pounds. If he’s going to get beaten up, however, it will be toward the end of the year when a blue-collar Navy defense can’t always hold the lead against opponents like Notre Dame and UCF.
Nick Rolovich’s Hawaii team didn’t look like it could stake out a lead against Navy or anybody in ’17, but the 2018 Rainbow Warriors had a by-all-accounts excellent debut against Colorado State. Dual-threat QB Cole McDonald, who barely saw the field last season as a sophomore, threw for 400+ yards and 3 touchdowns while adding almost 100 rushing yards against the league-rival Rams.
The Warrior defense didn’t exactly lead the charge, giving up a cool 537 yards through the air. But CSU struggled with its opportunities to score in the 1st half, posting just a lone touchdown while Hawaii racked-up a 16-point halftime lead.
Colorado State did not try to run the football enough to test Hawaii’s defense like Navy will. The visitors will most likely saw through an 8 or 9-man front for endless 1st downs and points in every quarter. But that’s far from the only factor to think about when betting on a 16-point spread.
Hawaii’s weak pass defense should not be a deadly liability against Navy. The Midshipmen, meanwhile, tend to have a hard time stopping a good MWC-level passing game.
The Mids are at least 75% likely to win their opener. But opposing Hawaii matches up better than house handicappers think. Perry won’t pass for 500 yards or likely even 100, giving the Rainbow Warriors a path to get to the 4th quarter trailing by only a few points.
Take Hawaii and (+16) points in Halawa.