I’ve been skeptical of the Missouri Tigers over the years, possibly in-part because I’m originally from St. Louis, so it feels safer to have a cynical attitude about a nearby program. Nobody accuses you of being a fair-weather fan.
Another reason is the scheme. I’m a believer in balance and versatility on offense, and since the dawn of time (or thereabouts) Missouri has lined-up in 4 and 5-wides and chucked the egg around for 4 quarters. I’m not certain, but I think the last time the Tigers recruited a tight end was in 1992.
Most spread-’em-out college playbooks come with a catchy brand-name like the Air Raid or the Run-and-Shoot. At Columbia, running 4 and 5-wides is just what the Tigers have always done and probably always will.
But last year, it clicked. Senior QB Drew Lock’s impressive campaign and a fierce defense allowed Mizzou to legitimately compete in the SEC. Missouri began fast, suffered a 3-game conference losing streak in which it was only TKO’d by Alabama before the 4th quarter, and then closed with an impressive string of wins before falling to Oklahoma State in a breathtaking Liberty Bowl.
Missouri has had a longstanding close relationship with the Wyoming Cowboys, but the Week 1 match-up between the pair isn’t your ordinary thrash-for-cash P5 vs mid-major contest in late summer. The scrum is actually taking place on the Wyoming campus, at (not the) War Memorial Stadium. Home field (not to mention home-opener) advantage gives the Mountain West defense more of a fighting chance to rush the pocket all night.
But an offseason QB transfer to Mizzou and a whole lot of favorites’ gambling action has driven the lines drastically in the Tigers’ direction on college football odds boards.
Who: Missouri Tigers at Wyoming Cowboys
When: Saturday, August 31st, 7:30 PM EST
Where: War Memorial Stadium, Laramie, WY
Lines: Mizzou (-17.5) at WYO (+17.5) / O/U Total: (53)
When a gunslinger like Drew Lock leaves an all-spread style team like Missouri, the offense usually takes a massive hit. Clemson transfer Kelly Bryant will provide competence and experience in the starting role, but late-career transfers often flop, and Bryant can’t block and tackle for his teammates.
It won’t help that the NCAA has banned the Tigers from playing in bowl season due to an academic scandal in which a tutor was found completing assignments for athletes in various sports. Just when it seemed like the program had turned a page from the controversies of earlier in the decade.
LB Cale Garrett is the heart and soul of the defense and is coming off a phenomenal 106-tackle campaign. The Mizzou defense was tenacious against the run in Barry Odom’s 4th year, but opposing teams can afford to be more patient pounding the line in 2019.
Bryant is also nursing a hamstring prior to Saturday’s contest.
What if the line-movement is being caused by a perceived-weak underdog? Wyoming was 6-6 in 2018, and it seems absurd to conclude that a Lock-less Mizzou is a lock (‘scuse the pun) to blow away a competent Mountain West team. Mountain West Connection argues that the Cowboy offense should be fine if the running game can somehow keep things rolling:
Wyoming goes into the fall much more confident that they have found their next QB. Sean Chambers emerged as a true freshman last season over the course of 4 games at QB, giving the offense a spark as a threat in the running game that made Wyoming that much more dynamic every time he was on the field. The running game carried the Wyoming offense last season and most of that production graduated with Nico Evans. Xavazian Valladay is back to carry the starting load in 2019, but Wyoming is short of depth at RB. Jevon Bigelow has left the team, so Valladay constitutes all of the returning experience at RB. The good news is that Trey Smith comes over from Louisville as a graduate transfer to give Wyoming some immediate depth for this fall. Still, Wyoming is not deep at a position of vital importance for what should be a run-first offense.
Gamblers are probably also investigating the defense, which has lost a pair of 4-year starting safeties. That means Wyoming could be vulnerable to the deep shot from a Power-5 team led by Bryant in Week 1.
But we also have no way of knowing Missouri’s defense will be as stout overall in ’19, especially without knowing if the offense will be hot enough to give the Tigers a lead all the time.
Wyoming’s successful drives are likely to be scattered – a few running plays will net negative-yards in the 1st half. But I can’t see a (-17.5) ATS bet on a team with as many unknowns as Mizzou. Motivation could be a big factor since the program can’t go to a bowl game, but that might not show up during Week 1.
Mizzou-to-cover is still probably 51%+ but I’m liking the Over more. If Missouri romps, their offense won’t need 75 yards to score, and a quick 42-7 halftime lead will turn into 60+ total points. If Wyoming is solid in the 1st half, expect a shoot-out with each side trusting its QB and WRs (Wyoming has a nice batch returning) more than hand-offs.
Take Over (53) points for Laramie on Saturday night.