Alright, thanks a lot, Power-5 college football programs, for being so unpredictable and helping dish-out my first losing Saturday in 7 weeks. I appreciate that. But you know what, I’ve had it up to here with making bad picks.
For Mississippi State at LSU, I’m going scientific. Both teams are in the Top 25, so let’s take a closer look at them, step by step.
Who: Mississippi State Bulldogs at LSU Tigers
When: Saturday, October 20th, 7 PM EST
Where: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA
Lines: Miss St. (+6.5) at LSU (-6.5) / O/U Total: (44)
Mississippi State snapped a 2-game skid with a stout defensive performance against then #8 Auburn 23-9 before taking a bye the following week. Quarterback Nick Fitzgerald exploded for 195 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns on his way to becoming the SEC’s all-time leading rusher from the quarterback position (a record formerly held by Tim Tebow). Sophomore running back Kylin Hill added 126 yards as the team’s overall rushing mark for the game was an outstanding 349 yards. The defense held the Tigers to 304 total yards of offense and kept them out of the end zone.
But the week prior, in a defensive slugfest, the Bulldogs suffered defeat in an emotional return for Gators’ head coach Dan Mullen as the Gators snuck out of Starkville with a 13-6 victory. It was a nightmare for the MSU offense for a 2nd week in a row as they produced a horrific 98 passing yards and 104 rushing yards.
The LSU Tigers stifled the proud Georgia Bulldogs in a dominant performance which resulted in a 36-16 victory last Saturday. The normally high-flying Bulldog offense could only muster 322 yards and committed 4 turnovers. An aggressive play-calling offense which went 4/4 on 4th down conversions sparked the Tigers to victory.
But the week prior, the Florida Gators toppled the then #5 Tigers 27-19 in Gainesville. The Tigers took a 19-14 lead in the 4th quarter off a drive where running back Nick Brossette ran for 79 yards, but he only rushed for 95 yards in the game. The Gators answered with a trick play on the next drive for a score. Joe Burrow interceptions on the Tigers’ final 2 drives of the game sealed the win for the Gators.
Fitzgerald is the Bulldogs’ workhorse in the ground game. On the year, he has 98 carries for 513 yards and 7 touchdowns. He leads the team in both categories. Fitzgerald has struggled throwing the ball at times, completing 49.6% of his passes for 709 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions.
Joe Burrow has been the catalyst behind LSU’s strong start to the season. He has thrown for 1,415 yards, 6 touchdowns, and only 2 interceptions through 7 games. Burrow has added 242 yards and 4 touchdowns on the ground.
The receiving game has been mostly nonexistent for the Bulldogs as only 2 receivers have double-digit catches. Running back Kylin Hill has 2 touchdown catches out of the backfield. Burrow looks to target 6’2” sophomore Justin Jefferson who has 27 catches for 453 yards and 2 touchdowns for LSU.
The Bulldogs have a solid combo in the backfield of sophomore Kylin Hill and senior Aeris Williams. Hill is averaging a whopping 7.0 yards per carry to produce 474 yards and 3 touchdowns. Williams has seen limited action with 29 carries for 201 yards. The Bulldogs lead the SEC in rushing with 240.7 yards per game.
The Tigers have an exceptional 1-2 punch of their own with senior Nick Brossette and sophomore Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Brossette has 640 yards 9 touchdowns on the year while Edwards-Helaire has 475 yards and 5 touchdowns.
The Bulldog defense has been a revelation, leading the nation in scoring defense at 12.7 points per game and ranked 9th in the nation in yards per game at 289.7 yards per game. In comparison, the LSU Tigers are ranked a pathetic 17th overall on defense…or something “terrible” like that.
Mississippi State’s stout defense is fronted by a pair of future NFL defensive linemen. 6’6” 245 lb senior Montez Sweat is a monster who is tied for 2nd in the country with 7.5 sacks and has 10 tackles for loss. 6’4” 300 lb junior Jeffery Simmons has added 8.5 tackles for loss.
The Tigers have one of the best punters in the game in sophomore Zach Von Rosenberg, who is 6th in the nation with 47.3 yards per punt. They’re winning the field position battle, which is music to the ears of ball-hawks like Grant Delpit, tied for 5th in the nation with 3 interceptions.
Junior linebacker Devin White leads the Tigers with 66 tackles on the season and has 7.0 tackles for loss.
Both teams are feeling supremely confident enough to play a little more wide-open than the O/U total indicates. The Bulldogs are becoming such a run-first offense that there’s no point in passing during the first 2-3 series and risking falling behind. LSU should force a few 3-and-outs early, but what then?
The Bulldogs’ probably don’t fear LSU’s offense, but they should fear a play-making defense in Baton Rouge. If MSU takes an early lead, they’ll need to take chances to keep it, and if the Tigers stuff the run early, look for the Bulldogs to panic and turn the football over, setting up scoring opportunities for Burrow on a short field.
I’m liking the Over (44) and predicting an entertaining, close game for 60 minutes. Who will cover? LSU, probably by a little but maybe by double-digits after the visiting cowbells quiet down late.